美股今秋崩盘的5大理由
美股今秋崩盘的5大理由
tigergoo评论：最近博主收到大量私信，希望开放博客。之前大量转载的文章已经足以警示博友们，博主希望默默地见证一个百年危机结局篇的开场，因此决定关闭博客，日后择机重开。考虑到这个开场的规模和对普通家庭和个人生存的影响力之大，博主经过思想斗争，决定与博友们共同见证这一历史。
博主开博，仅因兴趣，无任何商业目的。因此请有共同兴趣的博友们加强交流，请网特们、剽窃者及没有此方面兴趣的人远离。
已经有数家机构持有与该文几乎一致的预测，LEAP/E2020团队和Roger Wiegend是博主认为重要的预测者，今年秋天是他们完全一致的预测危机总爆发的时点，Robert McHugh 更悲观地认为美股会有清盘的可能。
无论你是否相信，你甚至可以说他们是恐怖的空头预测者，但最终的后果只有你及你的家人来承受。
中文转载自：2009年08月07日03:58新浪财经
导语：6日OmniSans Research资深市场策略师格雷厄姆·萨默斯(Graham Summers)发表评论文章称，高频交易的虚假繁荣、市场成交量严重萎缩、1300万失业人口用完救济、1000万亿衍生品的定时炸弹等因素意味着股市距离崩盘已经很近。
如今大家都在谈论什么“绿芽”、经济“复苏”和新一轮“牛市”，我想用一点点现实来唤醒这种金融集体无意识。下面几点都是真实的、有效的，也是恐怖的。
(1)高频交易程序占市场成交量的70%
高频交易程序(HFTP)从每一笔交易中获得1/4分钱的回扣，它们的目的并不是从交易中赚取利润，只是收集回扣。
举个例子，一个机构投资者下了一笔买单，在10.00-10.07美元之间购买甲公司股份股。该机构的下单程序为了不至于抬高股价来完成交易，它会分批买进。首先它以10.00美元的价格买入100股。这一单完成之后，程序再以10.01美元的价格买入200股。然后再以10.03美元的价格买入500股。这时候一个HFTP将会发现有一个机构投资者在连续下单。
然后HFTP开始跑到这个机构投资者的前面。因此HFTP会下一个10.04美元的100股买单。将股票卖给机构投资者的券商显然愿意以高价出售，于是券商将自己的股票以10.04美元卖给HFTP。HFTP回过头来再将股票以10.04美元卖给这个机构投资者。通过这种方式，交易程序从每一分钱中赚取了1/2分钱(从券商那里买进赚了1/4分钱，卖给机构又赚了1/4分钱)，并使得那个机构投资者成本提高了1美分。
这种无聊的交易现在占据整个市场交易量的70%。换句话说，现在的市场不再是基于“真实”的买单和卖单，而是被大量HFTP推着走。如果市场暴跌，HFTP可能彻底停止交易，令市场的成交量一夜之间蒸发70%。拿走70%的成交量，你将得到金融末日。
(2)即便算上HFTP成交量，市场成交量也出现1989年以来最严重的萎缩
的确，自从1989年夏天以来，成交量从未像现在这样萎缩。标普500指数1989年的表现为我们提供了今年秋天行情的线索。1989年，标普500指数3月份大幅上涨，7月份出现更为猛烈的攻势。在这个过程中，成交量萎缩至微不足道的水平。
(3)最近股市的上涨仅仅是轧空
到目前为止，股市从3月低点开始上涨了48%。这真是令人难以置信，尤其在当前的经济环境下：通常情况下，如果市场从熊市底部反弹40%以上，经济已经进入复苏模式9个月之久了。
我们仔细分析这轮上涨就会发现，这轮行情中“垃圾股”跑赢了价值股。50只盘子最小的股票涨幅领先50只盘子最大的股票7.5%，50只卖空最严重的股票战胜50只卖空最少的股票8.8%。为什么会这样？因为这轮行情主要是轧空行情。
(4)年底1300万美国人将用完失业救济
媒体上许多死多头对失业救济申领人数下降大声叫好。失业救济申领人数的确在下降，但这意味着大家找到工作了吗？不。这说明大家正在用完他们的失业救济。你只要想一想，美国有3000万人在用食品券(其中2000万人在15-64岁的工作年龄)，很明显实际失业率肯定接近16%。他们正在耗尽政府提供的援助，在2008年下半年失业的300万人将会在2009年10月用完失业救济。
(5)1000万亿衍生品的定时炸弹
很少有评论家提到美国金融体系中衍生品的名义价值超过1000万亿美元。单是美国的商业银行就持有令人难以置信的202万亿美元衍生品，最大的5家商业银行持有其中的96%。
高盛一家的衍生品敞口就达到39万亿美元，这相当于美国GDP的3倍还多。不过这比起摩根大通还是小巫见大巫，其资产负债表上衍生品高达80万亿美元。
记住，这些是衍生品的“名义”价值，而非“承担风险”的资金数量。然而，即便这1000万亿美元中只有1%真正面临风险，那么其金额也高达10万亿美元。
原文：
Now, Graham has a method to his madness. Most nuts do. However, some methods I agree with, others I don’t. Some work, some don’t. Some make sense mathematically, others don’t. So, I like to look at what their logic is and parse the logic moreso than say they’re nuts or not. Graham lays it out very methodically at Seeking Alpha.
High Frequency Trading Programs account for 70% of market volume. – I’ve complained about this one for a while. HFTP’s could care less which way the market goes. They make their money purely on the volume of trades. I hate short sells. For a while they were illegal. They should always be. Selling something you don’t have for a loss totally defies all free market logic. However, in October 2008 the ban was lifted. The market was in full meltdown and it was felt that that shorting was not affecting this downward pressure. How in the hell they came to that conclusion is beyond me. But, they did. Graham waits to get to the nuts and bolts of why HFTP’s are dangerous in October 2009, so I will as well. Even counting HFTP volume, market volume has contracted the most since 1989 – That doesn’t seem to be playing out on the other markets, but it does specifically on the S&P large caps. This is the crux of Graham’s biscuit. He gets very ballsy by stating at this point, “I am officially going on record now and stating that IF the S&P 500 hits 1,000, we will see a full-blown Crash like last year.” Monday, August 3, S&P 500 hit 1,000. It’s dancing around 1,000 right now. That means Graham is now on record as asserting there will be a full blown crash. He doesn’t say exactly when, but he gives more clues. This Latest Market Rally is a Short-Squeeze and Nothing More - “To date, the stock market is up 48% since its March lows. This is truly incredible when you consider the underlying economic picture: normally when the market rallies 40%+ from a bear market low, the economy is already nine months into recovery mode. Indeed, assuming the market is trading based on earnings, the S&P 500 is currently discounting earnings growth of 40-50% for 2010. The odds of that happening are about one in one million.” I have kind of pondered this aspect myself already. The benefit of the doubt in my mind was the panic was over and the market was returning to a fundamental level. I don’t mean that in an ecominc sense. I mean that in a purely individual business sense. Some entities are going to trade stocks just to make money. We’ve heard of them before. So, you’re going to have a certain value created by the practice of bouncing stock values around just to make trades. The weak of heart such as myself had already bailed and were waiting for the bottom. Comfortable it’s at bottom, people are slowly getting back in. The pessimist in me echoes Graham word for word. The naked short ban of Fall 2008 forced a ton of shorts out of the market. As they’re getting back in, they increase volume, they push up the price. They’re simply waiting for the kill. If they made their moves at 48% ago, the last bottom, then one would think in a short while they’ll make their move and push it at the very least back to where it was. I’m gonna go along with Graham on this one to a large degree. 13 Million Americans Exhaust Unemployment by 12/09 – Here Graham paints the dire picture of the fact that the huge number of unemployed haven’t fully hammered the economy yet because they have been receiving unemploymenty benefits the entire time. However, those benefits will expire by December 2009 and you’ll have a huge drain on the economy as those people become destitute. As they become destitute, they won’t be spending money buying stuff. This will hammer the economy. Logically, it would for sure. Realistically, we’ve got a President who has a handout for every conceivable excuse. Allowing millions of people to go without food, medical care, or housing is not an Obama option. Not only will he make sure they have the necessities such as food, housing, and medical care, he’ll toss in a free mortgage, a new energy efficient car, a line of credit, and whatever they dream up. So, contrary to Graham’s fears, the worse the economy gets, the better off the lower income people are. ( That’s sarcasm for sure, but politically it’s unreasonable to expect Congress to allow millions of people to have no means of support whatsoever. ) I have to totally disagree with Graham on this point. I will concede the long-term economic damage done will be something that will weigh on the markets, but the immediate impact will be mitigated. The $1 QUADRILLION Derivatives Time Bomb – This one is best understood by people like Graham. To put it simplest the way I understand it, derivatives have been used to create artificial value in something. The net result is that it artificially boosts the value of something to be used to create equity to balance loan values. If a derivative loses value, it creates a debt to equity crunch at the institution holding the derivative. In other words, it creates a credit crunch exactly how it happened last fall. The assumption Graham is making here is that the Feds learned nothing from the 21st century version of a stock market crash of ‘29. What did happen last Fall is that the Feds did figure out a plan to mitigate the derivatives collapse. They simply bought some of the failing derivatives and infused cash to prop up those institutions until the markets in theory stabilized. So, based on that assumption, I have to once again disagree with Graham. But, that comes with a caveat. Have the markets truly stabilized or are they simply taking a breather My personal guess is they are taking a breather. I’m going to jump off of Graham’s post at this point.I have a lot more faith in the feds than Graham does. He has a disconnect between the actions of the Feds and the volume of last Fall. It was the short sale ban that did a lot to curb the volume. It was the discouragement of a lot of individuals waiting this whole thing out that kept the volume slower than normal. In other words, it’s the actions of the last crash that have set the numbers to look like the next one is pending soon, based on what he’s laid out. However, I’ve got other issues. Let’s look at some economic variables and how they’ve changed from last October till now:
Unemployment has gone from 6.6% to 9.5%, most are saying it will get higher. Employment shed 385,000 jobs last October, it is projected to shed 467,000 jobs in June. The Misery Index was at 6.5 last October, it’s 9.5 in June. It’s most likely going to hit double digits for the first time since 1983 either this month or next. The Gross Domestic Product lost 5.4% last quarter of 2008. It continues to shed value at .8% at the end of June. To put things in perspective, the second quarter of 2009 was the first time since GDP began being measured in 1995 that it lost value. All bets mathematically are off. There is no history to play with. However, the 3rd quarter of each year can give some indication. The years the quarter was positive saw an average of 2.88% growth. The years of declining third quarters saw an average of 2.49%. However, the problem I see is that we are almost twice as likely to see a decline as we are an increase. The declining years outnumber the growth years 9 to 5. And lastly, politically, conservatives never liked the bailouts. Moderates are being attacked verbally across the nation over government expansion. Bottom line, Bush had an excuse for TARP I. His excuse was not handing a mess to Obama. It was a mess anyway. Obama’s excuse for TARP II was things were too big to fail, we needed to kick-start the economy “he inherited”, and, he won by a mandate. However, the but feeling I’m sensing is Obama has squandered most of his mandate on health care reform, the moderates are squeemish over trillion dollar deficits, and people are wondering exactly how these bailouts are helping them as they head to the unemployment office in droves. Bottom line, the politics of bailouts isn’t going to be on Obama’s side next time. He’ll have the muscle of existing laws, but Congress won’t blindly sign trillion dollar checks next time. For a quick fix, the money needs to go the private sector, something Obama’s been loathe to do.So, I see neither the economic fundamentals or the political willpower there to put in place what needs to be done to cut this situation off before it gets in place. So, most likely, it will take some cataclysmic economic event to trigger the economic fixes after the fact. So, although I discount a couple of Graham’s thoughts, I think both the economics and politics weigh very heavily in his favor. One other thing weighs heavily in his favor as well:
Monday, October 19, 1987 2164.16 -1738.74 -19.66% Monday, October 28, 1929 295.18 -260.64 -11.70% Tuesday, October 29, 1929 252.38 -230.07 -8.84% Friday, August 12, 1932 68.9 -63.11 -8.40% Wednesday, November 06, 1929 252.2 -232.13 -7.96% Friday, July 21, 1933 96.26 -88.71 -7.84% Wednesday, October 15, 2008 -9301.91 8577.91 -7.78% Monday, October 18, 1937 136.3 -125.73 -7.75% Monday, December 01, 2008 8826.89 -8149.09 -7.68% Thursday, October 09, 2008 9261.69 -8579.19 -7.37% Monday, October 27, 1997 7715.41 -7161.15 -7.18% Thursday, September 24, 1931 115.99 -107.79 -7.07% Thursday, July 20, 1933 103.58 -96.26 -7.07% Monday, September 29, 2008 -.62 .45 -6.95% Friday, October 13, 1989 2759.84 -2569.26 -6.91% Friday, January 08, 1988 2051.89 -1911.31 -6.85% Wednesday, October 05,1932 70.92 -66.07 -6.84% Monday, August 31, 1998 8078.97 -7539.07 -6.68% Thursday, July 26, 1934 91.32 -85.51 -6.36% Wednesday, October 23, 1929 326.51 -305.85 -6.33%Half the Top 20 worst days in NASDAQ history fall in the month of October. He’s simply hedging his bet by citing complex economics
9.15-10.15美股将有巨大的崩溃
tigergoo评论：9.15-10.15股市将有巨大的崩溃。通货膨胀有加速迹象，将推动黄金白银、能源和食品价格上升。美元危机后各国央行将弃用美元但不能杀死美元，因其市场太大。美元指数将跌至46。2009-2011年汽车业急剧萧条，福特不得不将依靠政府救助已求生。金融行业面临巨大修正甚至消失，银行假日后军事戒严和苛捐杂税将非常严重。
特别评论：A股将在美股倒下之前倒下。
Simple Ideas Are Better
Roger Wiegand Aug 6 2009
Summer offers choppy trading at best with trend-less days being the norm. This kind of trading has no conviction leading to losses.
As we race toward events of this fall, 2009, chart patterns and cycles are firming-up a potential crash outcome for September 15 through October 15. Next we envision our situation after the 2010 “Sell In May and go away” period. Our older, many months’ ago forecast for the current rebound was 10,400 to 10,800 as a Dow peak. With the Dow on 9300 last Tuesday morning 9800 seems easily achieved and the higher numbers are beginning to fit the analysis.
Our other important forecasts were for the S&P 500 to land on 1050 as a peak and gold at 985-1007 before the fall rally begins during the third week of this month. Along with these predictions we are watching the bonds and US Dollar line-up for serious selling and failures. The September Dollar futures are stuck on 77.80 Tuesday with lower supports at 77.50, 75.00, 72.50 and 70.00.
Bond auctions were watched closely last week with great nervousness as the amount of proposed new supply was staggering. One of our favorites, Rick Santelli mentioned he was most worried about the seven year offering. It turned out this group appeared to do well as we think much of the offering was not in fact sold but “marked as sold” and put on bond purgatory shelves. Wouldn’t it be nice to know how much paper resides in this No-Wheresville location I suspect it would scare the bloody hell out of all markets. This must obviously remain top secret stuff.
We reported last week in our letter, on Kitco and this week in The Trader Tracks Daily Tracker Q&A our reasons as to why we think the current global central bank policies are not working and cannot be successful. Most of our readers both in Trader Tracks and in other essays agree. We got some unusually nasty emails defending the administration this week, which to me screams of desperation and failure. Supporters of Obama policies are getting a strong whiff of current failures and are scrambling futilely to defend them.
“One clue also was Geitner’s high level meeting verbal explosion last Friday.This smacks of panic and rejection. He is flailing at the sky in frustration.”
From our perspective and for the America I love we hope this pack of fools can save the day, pull it off and prove us wrong. Based upon new updates discussed above, we say no chance. The coming crash is inevitable. Proponents of today’s wrong-headed US policies are beginning to understand they cannot buy their way out of a depression and for them it is absolutely terrifying. They are toast and now they know it. The larger problem is they took us down with them. And now do we do about it
Simple Facts Lead To Correct Solutions
The argument over whether its deflation or inflation has raged in recent years. Since the tip-over in June, 2005, our situation has been primarily deflation. Some have suggested that’s it and that’s all we get for years. Unfortunately, things are often different than they appear to be on the surface.
We suggest however, that current deflative action migrates into hard-core inflation as the Treasury and Fed scramble ever faster to band-aid this fatally wounded economy. They cannot seem to understand repair of the consumers would save the day. Instead the TARP billions-trillions were tossed at failed banks and corporations that are going to fail anyway. The outcome has been no outcome.
Not only have they wasted all that money but they have actually thrown gas on the fire making it all the worse as consumers were left twisting in the wind. Barn-burning dollar inflation is next and could easily slip into hyperinflation. While Chopper Ben told us he was the El Supremo student of the 1930’s depression and no way would this repeat on his watch, the identical mistakes were made again. History repeats as current psychology always repeats in human beings. Nothing new-nothing changes.
Since our following solution is not politically acceptable, we will endure the pain of Greater Depression II.
Authorities did not identify the problem. The correct answer was to mark all debts both public and private down to truly extreme and accurate values. Instead of today’s current shenanigans, these problems might have been mitigated (not totally repaired) with massive tax cuts and mark-to-market policies healing markets and consumers.
We Do Not Expect A Repeat Of The Dark Ages But This Event Is A Game-Changer.
Obama told us no more taxes. We forecast the largest and worst tax of all will be approved by the Congress and immediately implemented.
That is the VAT or Value Added Tax on everything sold. VAT could Begin at 5% to 6% and migrate to higher takings as the Sheeple pay little attention. The outcome is further economic stagnation.
“Value added tax (VAT), or goods and services tax (GST) is a consumption tax levied on value added. In contrast to sales tax, VAT is neutral with respect to the number of passages that there are between the producer and the final consumer; where sales tax is levied on total value at each stage, the result is a cascade (downstream taxes levied on upstream taxes). A VAT is an indirect tax, in that the tax is collected from someone who does not bear the entire cost of the tax.”
“Personal end-consumers of products and services cannot recover VAT on purchases, but businesses are able to recover VAT on the materials and services that they buy to make further supplies or services directly or indirectly sold to end-users. In this way, the total tax levied at each stage in the economic chain of supply is a constant fraction of the value added by a business to its products, and most of the cost of collecting the tax is borne by business, rather than by the state. VAT was invented because very high sales taxes and tariffs encourage cheating and smuggling.
It has been criticized on the grounds that (like other consumption taxes) it is a regressive tax.” – Wikopedia
“So waiting in the wings is the biggest middle-class tax increase of them all: a European-style value added tax, or VAT. This tax would apply to every level of production or service, and its beloved by politicians in Europe because it raises so much money so easily without voters noticing.” -WSJ
We project the Cap N Trade energy tax and Obamamania Health Care Plans will fail. Some might suggest the new VAT tax implemented on all goods and services would be more costly than these two failures combined. The end result will a stupendous increase in pure barter and international economic failure.
Reasons Why We Crash
The onset of new inflation has been creeping up within the past few weeks. Soon it goes faster. This drives certain commodity prices with speed; especially gold, silver, energy and food. This fall when events converge, stock markets crash, hard assets rally and the dollar and bonds crash. After the dust settles some markets in the first quarter appear repaired and begin to modestly rise. In June-July of 2010 AFTER THE SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY, a bigger smash hits. Paper credit markets implode while central banks world-wide shun the US Dollar but fail to kill it off entirely. It's just too big a market. The US Dollar sells from 77.50 to 46.00 over years. The financial industry as we know it will largely disappear or suffer major revisions. We have reported before that one or more of the exchanges could fail. In our view derivatives having no reality, might crash and burn taking down the CBOE derivative trading platform. Banks go on holidays. The Government might impose martial law and taxes will skyrocket. These are quite negative but temporary events. Taxes will stay intact. Look at Birmingham, Alabama today. All governments large and small will be grubbing and grabbing for cash in new and old taxes to retain the status quo. They will fail and bureaucratic layoffs will be legendary. The auto industry is extremely thinned out from later 2009 through 2011. Ford may finally have to get some government money to stay alive on lack of sales. Others might just fade away. U.S. and foreign politics as reflected by their Nanny-State ideas continue to hang-on for some time as smashed and broken consumers badly need help of all kinds. Further in time, these ideas are rejected and old American values as expressed by the US Constitution and Bill of Rights are revived. One positive could be the abundance of growing government will fade. Failures of Obamamania and similar government practices will not go away and die easily. When conditions become as bad as we predict, the Sheeple run to FDR “Please save me” policies.” Keep in mind our earlier discussion on history repeats. These bad economic periods are always resolved with a war. War takes people’s minds off their troubles and employs many folks to bolster the war effort. Let’s just hope after this next one there is something left of this old world. Timing for traders and investors will be more critical than ever. It’s one thing to position for profits and another to escape with them in swift volatility. Trading must be nimble. While hard assets such as farm land, gold, silver, and cash have great value, they also require elegant timing for entry and exit. We will do our very best to help our readers. Our retirement neck is on the line too. Keep in mind, if you own paid for stuff it will mostlikely remain in your hands; not in somebody else's. That includes gold and silver.Do not get tangled-up in daily noise. Keep studying the larger view and buy precious metals after each profit-taking correction. Headwinds are building into an economic hurricane. Take care of business right now. My dire fall prediction might surprise us and arrive earlier. Time is short.
Personally, I can see unbelievable opportunities to trade that we would never see again for many years. Turn these problems into opportunities. Those on the right side of the trade might get rich. Those on the other side are just victims. Stay Alert. – Traderrog
Roger Wiegand
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