tigergoo博主评论：根据惯例，每月第一个周五美国东部时间上午8点30分，也就是北京时间20:30美国劳工部公布“非农数据”，即美国非农就业人数与失业率(Unemployment)，该数据覆盖刚刚结束的月份。因此9月份的就业数据将在10月2日公布。

　　

　　从最近几个月的非农数据来看，无论数据好坏，都导致了美元大涨、黄金大跌。当就业数据好于预期时，表明经济回暖，股票市场获得提振，但市场预期美联储可能会加息，因而也提振了美元，但利空了黄金；当就业数据差于预期时，市场避险情绪升温，股票、商品等遭遇抛售，投资者买进美元，同样利空黄金。其实美元是否得到提振，并非因为非农数据好坏，关键在于美元的庄家美联储和美国财政部需要什么样的美元政策。如果需要弱势美元，那么非农数据好于预期时，市场可能会预期通货膨胀，因此卖出美元买进黄金；差于预期时，市场可能忧虑消费下滑导致市场流动性不足而预期美联储加印纸币导致未来的滞胀，因此同样卖出美元买进黄金。

　　

　　所以，除了庄家知道非农告对美元和黄金的影响，普通投资者是很难知道的，只能跟随，要么跟着拣些小便宜、要么吃大亏。

　　

　　10月2日的非农告，正巧遇上9月30日美国财政年度结束，各州该破产的可能要宣布破产，大公司该裁员的会加大裁员力度，美国政府支付债权国的利息也要计算一下是否有力偿还。

　　

　　由于上周成屋和新房销售数据意外下滑，博主预计9月份非农就业告将不好看，如果官方告的失业率突破10%，则实际失业率可能突破20%，这将导致新一轮的风险资产抛售，理论上会大大提振美元、利空黄金。但就象格林斯潘说的，“下一次的金融危机可能会有所不同”，如果风险资产遭抛售的同时国债违约，则是对美元巨大的利空，也就是说，有可能出现股票、商品期货被抛售的同时美元也遭遇抛售，唯一值得信赖的资产便是真金白银，借用蒙代尔的话，“全球经济危机必将涉及美元，而统一的世界货币将被看作是全球性美元灾难的一个偶然”。

　　

　　中国国庆节长假的10月1－8日，国际金融市场或将掀起多重惊涛骇浪。

　　

　　倾情奉献：LEAP第36期关于第二波金融海啸期间的理财策略（全文）

　　

　　

　　

　　Strategic recommendations to cross the deadly summer 2009

　　

　　Currency / Gold: （外汇和黄金）

　　

　　The "rogue waves" of summer 2009 will cause severe turbulence and lead to suspension of payments by states, including the United States and United Kingdom. The currency market will be very bumpy ride. At this stage, LEAP/E2020 can not anticipate specific course because changes will be so sudden and jerky that only trends can be identified.

　　

　　Thus, the U.S. Dollar and British Pound will see new dives. The Dollar Index will move to 0.65 and the euro-Book 1 in Book 1 Euro. The euro-dollar parity will be subject to double contradictory phenomenon in the short term: a very strong downward trend of U.S. dollar, but the Europeans will try to counter so that the Euro will become so expensive that it "kills "the resumption of exports. For our team, we therefore turned to a non-linear fashion, to a euro / dollar rate between 1.50 and 1.60 before the suspension of U.S. payment. Once this is seen as inevitable, regardless of the action of the ECB, it will move quickly to a rate of 1 Euro = 2 U.S. Dollars.

　　

　　The Real and the Yuan are still part of currency at LEAP/E2020 believes they can only grow stronger in the medium and long terms. （人民币走强）

　　

　　The currencies of countries' mining ', such as Australia or Canada, will be weakened by the absence of recovery after the summer, but instead they will receive the effects of diversification out of U.S. Dollar (purchasing of mines, raw materials, ...). In total, they should be quite stable.

　　

　　The Yen will encounter two problems related to its assessment in relation to the U.S. Dollar within the framework of payments crisis the U.S., but its heavy reliance of the United States will play in reverse. One decisive factor is the attitude of Japan in the removal from the U.S. Treasury bonds and dollar denominated assets. If this country is still "stuck" in the United States until the end (as shown for the moment his status as the last wildcard to save sales of U.S. Treasury Bonds), its currency will be caught in the debacle U.S. (since its huge dollar reserves will lose between 50% and 90% of their values in a few days). （日元将成为美元的陪葬品，因为如果日本坚持购买美国国债直到最后，其美元储备将在数天内跌去50-90%的价值。）

　　

　　Gold will continue to remain a refuge for the coming months. We maintain our board of 30% of assets in gold (physical gold, not paper), and we recommend to have about 6 months of basic expenses or in order to cope with the currency turmoil, including at the national level. Countries who face a possible suspension of payments will indeed désordres monetary intense internally.（30%的资产转为实物黄金）

　　

　　Real Estate （房地产）

　　

　　（美国房地产还将跌20%，英国也好不到哪里。请注意：我们的中投公司已经进入英美的房地产市场了）

　　

　　The markets have still not reached their lowest levels. So, ignore the advice back to purchase (unless absolutely necessary of course) issued by professionals and media.

　　

　　In the United States, LEAP/E2020 believes that prices will drop on average still 20% by summer 2010 and a new wave of property seizures in large urban centers will expand the number of states strongly affected by the housing crisis.

　　

　　In the United Kingdom, a similar decline is assured.

　　

　　These two markets, as those countries whose currency is being devalued strongly, will become towards the end of 2009 property market particularly attractive to foreigners. But provided that they remain very vigilant on the selection of regions and districts. Do not especially shopping real estate remotely like what is happening now in Detroit, where buyers think make good business by buying lots of houses for $ 10,000 each. These properties are located in neighborhoods with no degradation will only increase and profitability will not be possible: it is not because something is cheap, it is necessarily a good deal!

　　

　　And remember two things in particular on the U.S. market: do not invest in condominiums (because of the risk of personal bankruptcies of other co-owners) and be very careful about the quality of buildings (especially at the end of housing bubble, the buildings, even high-end, have tended to be of poor quality).

　　

　　On the London market, we must keep in mind that the reference prices of a year ago or two have no relation to the price of the future. The end of the City as it was known in the past implies that there will be more (due date) as strong demand fueled by the financial bubble of remuneration and other traders hedgefunders. We must therefore set the prices of London on the future prices of comparable European cities, or have unpleasant surprises for resale in a few years.

　　

　　In Spain, besides the problem of quality of recent construction, the United States, it is difficult at this stage to predict the level at which prices can fall because it is possible that this crisis simply breaks the model of tourism on which s' is based resort development Iberian. So before investing mistrust even at very low prices, unless it is by helping the heart.

　　

　　And finally, here is the tourist-board real estate in the summer of LEAP/E2020: Riga, Latvia is a beautiful city (rightly dubbed "the Pearl of the Baltic), which is becoming very affordable because of the country's crisis (anticipated two years ago by our team). A successful tourism can lead to an interesting real estate investment and also help the economy of this small country.

　　

　　Stocks / Bonds Business: （股票和债券）

　　

　　Beware, some companies want to make gifts. Beware! Whether banks (including U.S.) with their "cheap" and companies offering attractive rates for their loans (such as EDF in France), it must be very careful.

　　

　　Banks prepare for further losses very important by the end of 2009 and they attempted to charge small holders adding to their inevitable course next fall. As for companies that, like EDF, offer a loan at 5% over five years, while current inflation is announced around 1% to 2% when one does not deflation, they are not looking to get rich. They know very well that inflation is back (prices of products will need to mount only the unnecessary decline) and that within five years, it is even possible, given the money supply current one approaches in Europe inflation in double digits. In the United States and the United Kingdom, they will be in double digits since 2010.

　　

　　Also, if you choose to live in that if you return on the stock exchange, we must be wary of three types of companies (in addition to financial):

　　

　　1. those who do not have a strong balance sheet

　　

　　2. those that are too recent or on markets still uncertain (the crisis would be terrible for them because of lack of support for capital and consumer prodigals)

　　

　　3. those that are subsidiaries of American or British, as their parent homes will be even more than before forced to siphon cash to try to survive the crisis of their respective national markets. These companies will be more likely than others to make bankruptcy brutally and in any case unable to invest in the future.

　　

　　Treasury Bills: （国债）

　　

　　On this subject, GEAB No. 36 has already provided many elements. One should bear in mind that we must avoid at all costs the country who do not have strong public finances and / or a well-established ability to quickly increase their taxes without a popular revolt (or actually increase their tax revenue, because taxpayers are too poor). All the rest is literature designed to make believe that nothing ever changes and that what was will be. However, we are experiencing a crisis and, in this crisis, a particular period, characterized by rapid and radical changes. Remember that last June, few people thought possible collapse of the giants of Wall Street .... three months later, the collapse was consumed!

　　

　　Today, the pressure of the crisis weighs entirely on the statements and in particular those at the heart of the system collapses, the United States and United Kingdom. Their T-Bills, which are nothing other than an acknowledgment of debt secured on their economies and their currencies, are only as good as these economies and currencies: that is to say less and less each month password. The major holders of these values in public now trying to prepare their release (as seen in the first summit of BRIC Ekaterinebourg or decline in China's U.S. Treasury bills in the month of April last). The only question for other owners is not "if", but "When and how" the great sale of U.S. Treasury Bonds (Gilts and UK) will take place. We recall that for LEAP/E2020, it will happen no later than late summer 2009. In any case, it seems obvious that it is extremely dangerous to buy.（美国、英国债券不能买）

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