“金融九·一一”—银行业危机中的教训

　　

　　
第二部分

　　

　　：艾伦•伍兹 翻译：冥寥子

　　

　　2007年9月26日 星期三

　　

　　格林斯潘的“解释”

　　

　　
虽然经济危机是资本主义发展的必然结果，但资产阶级经济学家却难以解释经济危机为什么会发生。现代资产阶级经济学家的权威—格林斯潘对于经济危机的解释让人觉得好笑。
然而，格林斯潘至少在一点上是正确的。他说美国的次级贷款危机是“迟早会发生的不测”。这就是黑格尔所认为的必然性会通过偶然事件体现出来。“如果不发生次贷危机，那么就迟早会发生别的什么危机。次级贷款是美国金融系统中薄弱的一环。如果我们度过了这个难关而且并不破环经济发展的良好势头，这可以另当别论。但是，危机迟早会以这样或那样的形式发生。”
那么，根据格林斯潘的解释，是什么导致了危机的发生？
他认为，“问题的核心在于近年来美国向世界各地的投资者打包发行债券”。他说，“如果我们不把贷款以债券的形式发到国外去，次贷也就不会成为经济问题”。同时，定价和债务抵押债券等问题的解决也并没有“想象中的那么成功”。
经济学家总是用自己的主观理解去解释历次的资产阶级经济危机（甚至是一般的经济问题）。同样地，他们也假定所有的消费者都具备关于贸易的基本知识。这样，产生危机的原因如果不是错误的决策，就是中央银行的失误。或者，就像格林斯潘最新的解释那样，是因为“大众心理”。
“大众心理由兴奋转为恐慌，”他说，“当经济学家做出预测的时候，并没有把大众恐慌心理的因素考虑在内。”他又说，“一直以来的经济繁荣与萧条的交替循环这几年并没有消失—只是表现得并不活跃而已。”
“1720年英国曾发生过南海泡沫事件，在那之前发生过荷兰郁金香泡沫事件。此后，经济泡沫是经常发生的。这只是人类行为内在的一个方面。如果想彻底杜绝这些经济泡沫，只能从根本上破坏经济的发展。因此，你无法摆脱他们，只能等待这种经济狂热的局面自行减退。”
“我们这些预测经济形势的人员不可能也不必要把这种内在的大众心理的因素考虑在内。大众心理是不可预测的。虽然我们一再地强调它的重要性，但无法从中吸取经验。让你恐慌的事情可能最后的结果也还不错。如果你重复了10次这样的经历，当第11次到来的时候就会自以为不会再恐慌了。然而，到那时你仍然恐慌。这种行为模式无法改变。”（《每日电讯》, 9月17日，《我的重点》，艾伦•伍兹）
这种解释有许多明显的优点。大众心理的变化是长期发生的，因此，资本主义制度以及它所带来的后果（失业、经济危机、地位不平等、经济剥削）也将是长期发生的。从这种观点出发，经济危机就像是圣经中的穷人们，“与我们同在”。大众心理同时是不可预测并且很难理解的，所以，当用“大众心理”来解释问题时，所有的讨论和质疑也都不必要了。我们用不着解释经济危机，它们只是存在着。同样地，我们也用不着来寻求解决方案，因为“这种行为模式无法改变”。
事实上，格林斯潘有一半是正确的。在资本主义制度下，经济危机不可避免，这种模式也无法改变。如果你接受资本主义制度，就要接受资本主义制度的规律：也就是说，你要接受经济的繁荣与萧条交替循环（这在政界被称为“自我调节”）。一些改革主义者和像威尔•哈顿一样的凯恩斯主义者提倡用国家干预、补差赤字、政府对商业企业投资等的形式来改良经济体制，“跳出这种周期循环”。这也许会成功地延缓经济衰退，但却以将来更严重的经济危机为代价。这正好就是达林和布朗曾经做过的。
像罗杰•波特尔所说的那样：“至少这种状况将会使下一次的货币政策委员会（MPC）的会议格外引人注目。那些认为利率已经很高的委员显然会投票赞成降息。但行长金恩以及他的支持者则会强烈地抵制这一提议。金恩在上个星期给财政部的信中已经写明了抵制的原因。金恩警告说用降息这种方式来稳定经济，会‘鼓励过度的风险投资’，并且‘为将来的经济危机播下种子’。”（《每日电讯》，9月17日）

　　

　　
关键点？

　　

　　
每一次经济的周期都是以经济繁荣为开始，以经济衰退为结束。然而，想要精确地计算出这个循环周期的时间表是不可能的。当前的经济危机就是一个转折点。罗杰•波特尔认为“这就是金融市场的911”，或许这就是世界经济走向衰退的关键点。但是，管理金融市场的规则同支配资本主义经济周期的规则不尽相同。一个股票市场的危机也许会是一场全面的经济危机的导火索—正像在1929年那样。但是，如果潜在的过程仍然在发展，这样的小面积危机也许会帮助清除金融系统中的虚拟资本，并且会促进未来时期（长期或是短期）的经济发展—正像1987年那样。
资产阶级经济学家普遍认为政府和中央银行能够操纵经济，从而避免经济衰退。他们中的大多数认为像1929年那样严重的大萧条不会再出现。之所以有这样的假定，是因为最近二十年中只发生或两次程度相对轻微的经济衰退。他们以为终于找到了避免危机的万能药，而这实在是大错特错了。
当前英国的经济危机恰好证明了所有解决危机和避免恐慌的手段都毫无用处。正像羊群会因为仅仅闻到了一丝狮子的气味而被惊吓得狂奔逃窜一样，当知道真实的经济状况时，大众被恐慌攫住，他们的表现与受了惊吓的羊群无异。一些评论家对这些“毫无理性”的行为表现出轻蔑的态度。如果这就是“毫无理性”的话，那么资本主义市场经济也是同样的毫无理性。
英国的央行与政府既无法防止出现大规模的银行业危机产生，也没有能力稳定存款人和投资者的情绪。结果，他们只是成功地做到了用纳税者的钱，向银行家承诺会无条件地注资，用以防范金融业的完全崩溃。这种做法虽然暂时地阻止了经济滑坡，却是以将来更严峻的经济衰退为代价的。

　　

　　
危机结束了吗？

　　

　　
英国的银行业危机结束了吗？根本没有。只是政府用史无前例的手段进行干预，保证了所有银行中存款的稳定，暂时地“解决”了抵押贷款银行危机。由于各个英国抵押贷款银行支行的门前民众都排起长队，数十亿资金从银行消失，财政大臣达林不得不采取干预政策。
如果英国抵押贷款银行倒闭，就很可能产生连锁反应，导致其他银行一个接一个地倒闭。政府承受不起银行大规模倒闭带来的后果。所以，政府最后宣布将为银行注资，缓解危机。这虽暂时缓和了局势，却丝毫没有解决根本问题。相反，用更多的公众资金来为这个混乱的金融系统注资，只能最后导致更严重的危机。
在《每日电讯》的经济主编埃德蒙•康威对艾伦•格林斯潘的采访中（2007年9月17日），格林斯潘曾经对英国房市价格下跌提出过警告。他预测说英国房市正在走向一个“痛苦的回落”，并且提醒了房产业主将会遇到的“困难”。因为升高的利率必将会极大程度地影响房市，使价格上涨停止。格林斯潘是一位81岁的经济学家，并且是戈登•布朗的顾问。他说，最近英国—尤其是伦敦以及东南部地区—的房市的价格上涨状况不会持久。
“这场繁荣会持续吗？不会的。你们也会已经开始注意到了按揭贷款利率的变动。”他又说，在一些地方，经过了一段时间的低利率吸引投资者之后，按揭贷款利率就开始飙升。“这种状况将会转变的，也不得不转变。”他说。
格林斯潘说，面对信用危机产生的影响，英国比美国更加脆弱，“英国比我们更可能遭受损失，这是由于英国有更多的利率可变的按揭贷款。”他还谈到了很多家庭选择可变的利率的贷款，而不是固定利率的交易。
在这次采访中，他还说：“在接下来的几年中，过低的利率将会引发严重的通货膨胀。只有加倍提高利率，才能避免通货膨胀。”
这场危机并没有被避免，而只是个开端。由于这几年间的轻微的通货膨胀、低存款利率和低贷款利率，从现在开始利率将会逐渐升高。这将会产生一系列问题。一方面，升高的贷款利率将会削弱消费能力，因而减少需求。这不仅会发生在欧洲，也会发生在美国。另一方面，由于通货膨胀中不可避免的价格上涨（原油价格最近又创新高），将会影响到资本家的利益，自然会减缓生产，甚至出现经济萧条。
首先，银行业利润的下降将会导致金融行业的裁员，必将影响到房地产价格，也会导致建筑业进一步的需求收缩、大批人失业和破产。这就会接连影响到钢、水泥、砖以及其他日用品的需求量，进而使工业发展处于更加低迷的状态。
房价的崩溃将会引发建筑业的不景气。在美国，已有二百万个住宅因为如期付款而被收回。数百万的美国穷人发现自己无家可归；与此同时，数百万的另一些人正在竭力偿还贷款，但这些贷款已经贬值很多了。一个作家最近预言，美国将会出现“低阶层的贷款奴”。
我们暂且不谈这些社会影响。从严格的经济学角度来看，建筑业的衰退会导致严重后果。因为近年来，建筑业的繁荣是美国经济发展的主要动力。所以，房市的疲软必会给未来经济造成不良影响。

　　

　　
美国—世界经济的关键

　　

　　
美国经济在世界经济中至关重要。而现存的导致经济滑坡所有因素都会对美国经济产生影响。2000年爆发的技术泡沫就曾导致了一场经济衰退，只是影响相对轻微。但没有人能保证下一场的经济危机也会向上次一样不那么严重。在经济学中，历史不会指引未来的走向。现今的金融市场的危机为更大范围的经济危机提供了可能。不管怎样，美元仍然是世界上的外汇“储备货币”。美元的急剧贬值也必然会影响世界经济的稳定。
美国经济的发展状况仍然是世界经济发展的决定性因素。一些战略资本家对美国经济的状况日益关注。在8月14日，《金融时》发表了一篇题为《警告美国：从罗马的衰落中吸取教训》的文章。这个题目表露了战略资本家当前的心理。
杰里米•格兰特在华盛顿写道:“难以维持的解决财政赤字的政策以及久积不愈的债券问题，还有移民问题和海外的军事行动使美国政府现在的处境十分艰难。如果不尽快的着手解决这些问题，那么一场危机也就不远了。
联邦政府的总审计员大卫•沃克在一份告中极其悲观地预测美国未来的形势。他把这称为‘长期而可怕的相似’。
沃克警告说，美国现实状况同罗马帝国的灭亡时期的状况有‘惊人的相似之处’。‘堕落的价值观念、失败的国内政策、过分自信和过分扩张的海外军事行动以及中央政府在财政问题上的失误’等因素，都是造成罗马帝国灭亡的原因。
‘听起来很像吧？’沃克说，‘在我看来，是从历史中吸取教训的时候了。首先是要采取措施来保证合众国的稳定。’沃克写道，财政收支的不平衡意味着美国正在走向‘债务危机’。”
四家美国最大的投资银行发表了第三季度的统计结果使人们对华尔街信心渺茫。这些结果明确地显示了次贷危机以及今年夏天的借贷收缩对经济大规模的破坏。由于次贷危机的影响，这个季度中美国银行的联合股价已经下跌了22%。雷曼兄弟公司、贝尔史登公司、 摩根士丹利和高盛公司都已经注销了数百万美元的债务。美林证券在一份监管文件中说，由于未来潜在的损失，公司已经做出了“恰当的估价调整”，并且承认金融市场进一步的不稳定将会带来的“巨大的风险”。
自从夏季的危机以来，美联储的委员第一次开会，讨论下调利率。虽然利率下调25%到5%是最有可能的，但结果下调了0.5%。这种结果的产生是迫于银行业的压力。他们要求下调利率，以防止危机的“传染”，也就是说，防止次贷危机波及到金融业的其他方面，导致美国卷入全面的经济危机。
太平洋投资管理公司的保罗•麦卡利对《每日电讯》透露（2007年9月17日），在接下来的三个月中，美联储可能会进一步地降低利率。“我们需要降低利率，也将会大幅地降低利率。这不仅是为了帮助华尔街渡过难关，也同时为了保证缓慢的经济增长不会恶化成经济的衰退。”这便是现在金融市场普遍的紧张下的忧虑。
据政府的不完全统计，通货膨胀正在升高。2000年小布什执政的时候，每盎司黄金价值273美元，每桶原油价值22美元，1欧元兑换0.87美元。现在，每盎司黄金价值700多美元，每桶原油价值80多美元，1欧元兑换1.4美元。一些经济学家预测明年春季原油价格将上涨到每桶125美元。降低利率无疑给现今的通货膨胀火上浇油。
美国的经济繁荣是由信用贷款支撑起来的消费繁荣。正像马克思解释的那样，贷款是突破市场的自然限制，扩大市场需求的一种方式。但贷款金额是有限的，现在贷款数已经达到了这个限额。如果资本家不能够找到商品市场，就不会产生剩余价值，随后就会发生生产过剩的危机。
如今，美国工人平均生产的产品是十年前的130%，而近六年的工资却一直没有增长。价格的升高意味着工资的实际减少。领补助金的人以及其他有固定收入的群体也面临着同样的问题。就算没有经济危机，美国人民的生活水平同样会下降。许多美国穷人艰难地生活着，勉强维持生计。现在，数百万的人将会面临失掉工作和住所难题。这将会引发一场罢工和阶级斗争的高潮，而这种情况自从三十年代还没有再发生过。
降低利率充其量是一个暂时的缓和危机的方法，它不会重新活跃房地产市场。经济的繁荣时期已经过去了。蒙受了损失的银行正在提高借贷的标准，房市的存货比史上任何时期都要多。房价的回落会影响消费，导致需求的收缩。降低利率实际会使通货膨胀增加。
股票市场的通货膨胀在这之前已经到来。整个美国股票市场的资本总额从1994年底的5.3万亿增长到1999年底的17.7万亿，再增长到2006年底的35万亿，使盈利与股价之比成几何数字增长。这并不是因为生产活动的扩大，而是因为大量虚拟资本的增加：证券的数目一定，而美元却增加了。
“上升的物体一定会有下降的时候”。这句话不仅适用于重力，也同样适用于股票市场。股价和房价的增长速度令人眼花，这为将来股价和房价以同样的速度跌落准备了条件。尽管美联储采取了各种措施，但是还会有无数的房产因买者未如期付款而被收回，无数人损失惨重以至于破产。

　　

　　全球的影响

　　

　　
投资银行寄希望于美联储调低利率，以使股价重新上涨。但利率的降低并没有解决根本问题。它并没有减少房产业主和按揭贷款者的破产，也没有维持银行的稳定，反而使情况恶化。
格林斯潘的做法使美国金融市场资金流动性极大。这也就产生了当前的房产泡沫，这是有史以来投机活动最繁荣的时期。美联储降低了借贷成本使借贷金额在各个方面大幅扩展，这会延长并且恶化房产和借贷泡沫。正像一位市场分析家所说的：“美联储降低利率就相当于给借贷成瘾的吸毒者提供海洛因。”
从资本家的观点出发，这是极度不负责任的行为。与降低利率来鼓励投资相比，不如让破产的企业（包括银行）就此倒闭。前者最终会影响美元的稳定，继而破环美国的整个金融系统。如果美国当局不愿对此采取措施的话，金融泡沫迟早会破灭，产生更为惨痛的后果，使市场蒙受严重损失。
正像我们所看到的，资产阶级经常用“市场信心”的说法来解释经济现象，似乎这些现象完全是主观发生的。事实并非如此。投资者的“信心”建立在实际存在的物质因素的基础上。只要美国经济还在发展，其他国家的资产阶级就仍然愿意为其投资，尽管经济发展的基础很不稳固。他们不会注意到巨额的债务和大量的财政赤字。近年来美国财政每年有约八千亿的赤字，每月至少要筹资七百亿美元来补偿赤字，。
由于高达三万亿美元的净外债，美国已经从世界上最大的债权国转变为最大的债务国。自从1930年的大萧条以来，美国的存款利率第一次呈负值。现在，中国以及其他亚洲国家掌握着大量的美元外汇及债券。美国如果出现经济崩溃对他们无益，而美国也指望着这些贷款来缓解经济压力。但是，任何事物都是由限度的。美国经济基础的不稳固迟早会引发国际范围内美元的挤兑。低利息率不仅不会使资金重返市场，反而会进一步损害美元地位的稳定。
因为美国的经济基础不稳固所以，美联储降息的举措并不稳妥。虽然美国正在努力维持现在经济发展的状况，但很难相信这种状况会持续。终有一天，其他国家会担心他们所持有的美元外汇和债券将会大幅贬值。当可以用同样的投资以高利息率换取的收益的时候，就没人再以以低利息率向美国贷款。
其余的世界各国并不愿意长期为美国这种远远超出自己生产能力的消费提供资金，这种迹象已经显现出来。很矛盾的是，沙特阿拉伯是最先恐慌的国家之一。沙特阿拉伯是美国在阿拉伯世界的主要盟友，并在美国拥有巨大数额的投资。沙特阿拉伯第一次拒绝了与美国同步降低利率，这表明这个石油大国准备使货币同美元脱钩。这一举动可能会引起中东地区国家纷纷使本国货币与美元脱钩的局面。
中国政府方面正在商议防止美国的经济状况威胁本国经济安全的计划。这暗示着如果美国用贸易制裁来向中国施压，要求人民币升值，中国政府会变现其掌握的大笔的美国国库券。美国财政部长亨利•鲍尔森说，任何此类的贸易制裁都会影响到美国的威信，并且“引发全球性的关于贸易保护的立法过程”。他指明了美国以及全球经济所面临的危险：是贸易保护主义、贸易战及竞争性的货币贬值等因素破坏了世界贸易，使1929年的经济衰退真正恶化成经济危机，并使这场危机持续了将近十年，直到第二次世界大战的爆发。
格林斯潘指出，在将来的几年内，当美国大笔的财政赤字有所缓解的时候，美元必然会贬值。他说，“当前的状况会出现经济的‘自我调节’，而自我调节的手段之一就是通过货币调节”。格林斯潘所指的“自我调节”其实就是经济衰退的过程。
美国的日用品大王，乔治•索罗斯的前任合伙人吉姆•罗杰斯说，当美元已经处在巨大的压力之下的时候，美联储如此大幅度地减息无异于玩火，会使房地产市场陷入更深的危机。
他说：“如果本•伯南克开始让那些印刷机更快地印制钞票的话，我们将经历一场严重的经济衰退：美元将会崩溃，证券市场将会崩溃。麻烦将会一个接一个地到来。”
一定时期内，大批的境外投资者将会对美国的经济失去信心。最近在英国出现的景象，将会同样地在全球的舞台上上演。正像英国抵押贷款银行出现挤兑一样，美元也会因相同的原因出现挤兑的现象。如果境外投资者担心他们不会从“美国公司”取回资金，就会争先地撤回投资。这种现象发生在英国时，英国央行大量向银行注资来支撑其运营。但是谁会做同样的事情来支撑美国经济？当经济发生问题时，英国央行是英国的“最终的贷方”；而美国，却是整个世界的“最终的贷方”。
最近一段时间，有一个流行的观点就是美国的经济危机不会影响到世界其他国家。我在 题为《国际局势及远景》的演讲中从全世界的角度分析了这一问题。演讲稿已经发表在马克思主义者网站上。资产阶级经济学家在全球化问题上认为世界经济比历史上任何时期的联系都更紧密，而“美国经济危机不会影响其他国家”的观点显然与此是相矛盾的。在任何一个较大的经济实体中发生的主要事件一定会影响到其他的经济实体，这尤其体现在美国经济的问题上。
最近的经济危机从美国开始，随后迅速地波及到欧洲及英国。这充分地显示了全球经济的相互依赖性。现在，英国的银行业危机也正在影响世界的其他部分。英国第五大银行的挤兑现象几乎导致了英国全面的经济崩溃，存款人和投资者都应在此中吸取经验。
麦克•惠特尼在他的文章中很好地阐释了这一问题：“这场经济飓风已经登陆英国，并向着美国的方向前进。在行进的路上它会积聚更大的能量。”
“一场来势更汹的海啸将会危及美国。由于这里很多银行都同英国抵押贷款银行具有同样运营模式，所以都会受到影响。投资者不会再购买债务抵押债券（CDOs）和抵押支持债券（MBSs）或者其他同房地产相关的债券。不管他们是不是次级贷款，都没有人需要。这意味着美国经济将会很快经历同样冲击，就像英国正在经历的一样。唯一的不同就是美国的房市已经处在低迷时期，股市也愈加不稳定。”
“这也就是为什么美国财政部长亨利•鲍尔森昨天匆忙访问英国，试图寻找办法来阻止这场危机的扩散。”
1997到1998年的经济危机从亚洲爆发，随后波及到土耳其、波兰、俄国、俄罗斯、巴西和阿根廷。在阿根廷，这场危机在2001年的12月份引发了经济崩溃，促成了布宜诺斯艾利斯大街上的暴动和费尔南多•德•拉•鲁阿政府的垮台。同样的事情也将会发生，经济形势的突变可能在世界上任何一个国家发生。这表现了世界范围内资本主义经济潜在的不稳定。所以，格林斯潘把自己最近出版的自传名为《动荡的年代》绝非偶然。
伦敦，2007年9月24日

　　

　　原文：

　　

　　
“A financial September 11” - Lessons of the banking crisis – Part Two
By Alan Woods
Wednesday, 26 September 2007
Greenspan "explains"
The bourgeois economists are incapable of understanding crises, which are an inescapable result of capitalism. It is quite amusing to read the comments of Alan Greenspan, the guru of modern bourgeois economics.

　　

　　However, Greenspan is right about one thing at least. He says that the sub-prime lending crisis in the USA was "an accident waiting to happen" and that is correct. Hegel explains that necessity expresses itself through accident: "if it wasn't the sub-prime, it would have been something else. Sub-prime in the US was the weak link in our system. If we had gotten past that and we hadn't broken the overall fever it would have been something different, but it would have happened one way or the other".

　　

　　So what caused the crisis according to Greenspan

　　

　　"At the core of it, he says, is the fact that in recent years banks have been selling on packages of debt to investors all over the world. ‘[Sub-prime] wouldn't have been an economic problem at all if we didn't securitise this stuff and sneak it out of the country,' he says. Meanwhile, the pricing of the complex and opaque collateralised debt obligations which contain so much of this debt has ‘turned out not to be all that successful'."

　　

　　For the bourgeois crises (and economics in general) are always explained in subjective terms. In the same way as all consumers are assumed to possess a universal knowledge of commodities, so all crises are caused either by the mistaken decisions of governments or central banks, or, as in this latest version of Greenspan, human nature:

　　

　　"Human nature moves from euphoria to fear," he informs us. "It is this sense of fear that modern economists are failing to take account of when they make forecasts, he adds. The old habit of boom-and-bust has not died in recent years - it has merely been dormant.

　　

　　"We've been having bubbles since the South Sea Bubble in 1720, and then before that the Tulip bubble. It's one of the innate aspects of how human beings behave. You cannot end them unless you undermine, very fundamentally, the economy; and you can't defuse them because you have to wait for the fever to break.

　　

　　"I don't think we forecasters have been factoring in innate human nature at the level we should and can. Innate human nature is forecastable: we repeat the same thing time and time again, [yet] we cannot learn. You can go through a period of fear and things come out alright in the end, and you do it 10 times and you'd think on the 11th time you wouldn't worry. But you worry. There's no way of altering the pattern." (Daily Telegraph, September 17, my emphasis, AW)

　　

　　There are many obvious advantages in this interpretation. Human nature is permanent, and therefore capitalism and all its consequences (unemployment, crises, inequality, exploitation, etc.) must also be permanent. According to this view, like the poor in the Bible, they are "always with us". Human nature is also imponderable, mystical and something that cannot be easily understood. Therefore, by appealing to human nature, all discussion and questioning must cease. We do not have to explain crises; they just are. Consequently, it is useless to look for solutions or alternatives: "There's no way of altering the pattern."

　　

　　As a matter of fact, Greenspan is half correct. Under capitalism crises are inevitable and there is no way of altering the pattern. If you accept capitalism then you must accept the laws of capitalism: that is to say, you must accept booms and slumps (now referred to in polite circles as "corrections"). The reformists and Keynesians like Will Hutton who advocate tinkering with the system to "smooth out the cycle" by state intervention, deficit financing, pump-priming and the like, may succeed in postponing a slump for a time, but only at the cost of preparing an even more serious crisis in the future. That is precisely what Darling and Brown have just done. As Roger Bootle says:

　　

　　"At the very least, these developments imply the next MPC meeting will be a humdinger. Those members who thought that interest rates were already high enough should logically now be voting for a cut. But the Governor and his allies will surely want to resist that for all the reasons he outlined last week in a letter to the Treasury Committee. King warned that action to shore up the financial system could ‘encourage excessive risk-taking' and ‘sow the seeds of a future financial crisis'." (The Daily Telegraph, September 17)

　　

　　Critical point
Every economic cycle begins with a boom and ends in a slump. It is impossible, however, to be precise about the timing of the cycle.

　　

　　The present financial crisis is a turning point. In the opinion of Roger Bootle "this is the financial markets' 9/11." It may or may not signify that the critical point has been reached when the world economy begins a slide into recession. That is a possibility. But the laws governing the conduct of the money markets are not the same as those that govern the capitalist cycle. A stock market crisis may be the spark that ignites a general crisis, as happened in 1929. But if the underlying process is still on an upwards curve such a crisis can serve to squeeze out fictitious capital from the system, preparing the way for a further period (longer or shorter) of economic growth, as in 1987.

　　

　　The general opinion of the bourgeois economists is that central bankers and governments can manipulate the economy so that slumps can be avoided. Most of them agree that a repetition of the crash of 1929 and the Great Depression is impossible. They assume that because for the last twenty or so years there have only been two recessions and both of them were relatively mild, that they have finally managed to find a magic recipe for avoiding slumps as in the past. This is an entirely erroneous assumption.

　　

　　The recent crisis in Britain showed precisely that all the instruments for solving a crisis and avoiding panic are useless. In the moment of truth people were gripped by a herd instinct. They moved en masse like a herd of wildebeest frightened into a stampeded by the mere scent of a lion. Many commentators have spoken scornfully about this "irrational" conduct. If it was irrational, then it is the same irrationality that is the heart and soul of the capitalist market economy.

　　

　　The government and the Bank of England were powerless either to prevent a major banking crisis or to calm the nerves of depositors and investors. In the end they only succeeded in preventing a total collapse by giving a promise of unlimited funds to the bankers, paid for out of the taxpayers' pockets. This has temporarily halted the downward slide, but only at the cost of preparing the way for even steeper falls in the future.

　　

　　Is the crisis over
Is the crisis in Britain over Not at all. Only the unprecedented intervention by the Government temporarily "solved" the Northern Rock crisis by publicly guaranteeing all the bank's deposits. The intervention by the Chancellor, Alistair Darling was forced by the spectacle of mass queuing outside Northern Rock branches and billions wiped off banks' shares.

　　

　　The government could not afford to allow Northern Rock to go under and possibly set off a chain reaction that would cause the collapse of one bank after another. It therefore announced it would after all fund Northern Rock. This temporarily calmed the situation, but none of the underlying problems have gone away. On the contrary, by injecting even more (public) money into a diseased system, they will ultimately make the problems far worse than they were before the crisis over Northern Rock broke.

　　

　　In an interview with Edmund Conway, Economics Editor of the Daily Telegraph (17/9/07), Alan Greenspan warns of a UK house prices drop. He predicts that Britain's housing market is heading for a "painful correction" and warns of "difficulties" ahead for UK home owners, as rising interest rates bring house price growth to a shuddering halt. The 81-year-old economist, an adviser to Gordon Brown, said that recent increases in house prices - particularly those in London and the South East - were unsustainable:

　　

　　"Can [the boom] last No. You're already beginning to see the mortgage rates are moving; a lot of the two-year fixes are beginning to unwind, and the teaser rates are going," he adds, referring to mortgages where rates jump after an introductory period in which low rates are used as bait to attract people. "It's going to turn, it's got to turn," he says.

　　

　　Mr Greenspan also warns that Britain is more vulnerable to the effects of the credit crunch than the US: "Britain is more exposed than we are - in the sense that you have a good deal more adjustable-rate mortgages," he says, referring to the standard variable rate loans that many households have chosen over fixed-rate deals.

　　

　　In the same interview he also warned that:

　　

　　"Inflation will pick up dramatically over the coming years, as much as doubling from its recent lows and that interest rates may have to hit double figures in the coming years to avoid inflation."

　　

　　The crisis has not been avoided. It is only just beginning. From now on, after years of low inflation and low interests and easy credit, we will see a tightening of credit and rising interest rates. This will have a number of effects. On the one hand, dearer and scarcer credit will reduce demand by cutting into the purchasing power of the consumers, both in Europe and the USA. On the other hand, together with the inevitable rise in inflation (oil prices recently hit a new high), it will negatively affect the profits of the capitalists, which will lead to a slowing of production, or even a recession.

　　

　　To begin with, a fall in the profits of the banks must lead to job cuts in the financial sector, which must affect property prices. This will lead to a further contraction of demand, unemployment and bankruptcies in the construction industry. This in turn will affect demand for steel, cement, bricks and other commodities, leading to a further downturn in industry.

　　

　　The collapse of house prices must provoke a slump in the construction industry. Already in the USA two million homes have been repossessed. So millions of poor Americans find themselves homeless, while millions of others are struggling to pay the mortgages on homes that are no longer worth as much as they paid for them. One writer recently predicted the emergence of a sub-class of mortgage slaves in the USA.

　　

　　Let us leave aside the social effects of all this. From a strictly economic point of view it is extremely serious because the construction boom was the main motor-force of the US economy in recent years. Therefore, in this case, it is not hard to see that a slump in the housing sector must have an effect on the real economy in the not too distant future.

　　

　　US - the key to world economy
All the ingredients are present for a downward slide, particularly in the all-important US economy. The bursting of the technology bubble in 2000 led to a recession, but it was a relatively mild affair. But there is no guarantee that the next one will be the same. In economics the past is no guide to the future. The present crisis in the money markets has raised the prospect of a recession in the wider economy. The dollar, despite everything, remains the world's "reserve currency". A steep fall in its value could destabilize the global economy.

　　

　　The US economy remains the decisive factor in the world economy. But the strategists of capital are increasingly concerned about the state of its health. On August 14 an article appeared in the Financial Times with the title Learn from the fall of Rome, US warned. This title tells us a lot about the current psychology of the strategists of Capital. Jeremy Grant in Washington wrote:

　　

　　"The US government is on a 'burning platform' of unsustainable policies and practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare under funding, immigration and overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon, the country's top government inspector has warned.

　　

　　"David Walker, comptroller general of the US, issued the unusually downbeat assessment of his country's future in a report that lays out what he called ‘chilling long-term simulations'.

　　

　　"These include ‘dramatic' tax rises, slashed government services and the large-scale dumping by foreign governments of holdings of US debt.

　　

　　"Drawing parallels with the end of the Roman empire, Mr Walker warned there were ‘striking similarities' between America's current situation and the factors that brought down Rome, including ‘declining moral values and political civility at home, an over-confident and over-extended military in foreign lands and fiscal irresponsibility by the central government'.

　　

　　" ‘Sound familiar' Mr Walker said. ‘In my view, it's time to learn from history and take steps to ensure the American Republic is the first to stand the test of time.' The fiscal imbalance, he wrote, meant the US was ‘on a path toward an explosion of debt'."

　　

　　There was great uncertainty on Wall Street as the big four US investment banks released their third-quarter results, which gave the clearest insight to date of the full damage from the sub-prime rout and the summer credit crunch. US banks have seen their combined share prices fall 22% during the quarter amid concerns about their exposure to the sub-prime market. Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs all wrote off hundreds of millions of dollars. Merrill Lynch warned in a regulatory filing that it had made "fair value adjustments" in the face of potential losses and admitted to "significant risk" from further exposure.

　　

　　The US Federal Reserve's board met for the first time since the summer crisis to consider a cut in interest rates. A quarter-point trim to 5% was seen as the most likely outcome, but in the end there was a half percentage point cut. The reason for this move was pressure from US business on the bank to ease monetary policy dramatically in order to prevent "contagion" - that is to say, to prevent the crisis in the sub-prime sector from spreading to the rest of the financing world and tipping the USA into a full-blown recession.

　　

　　Paul McCully, of bond fund Pimco, told the Daily Telegraph (17/9/07) that the Federal Reserve might have to cut rates even further during the next three months. "It needs to ease and will ease substantially, not to bail out Wall Street but to make certain that weaker economic growth does not morph into a recession." It is these fears that lie behind the present nervousness in money markets.

　　

　　Inflation is increasing, a fact not adequately reflected in government statistics. In 2000, when Bush took office, gold was $273 per ounce, oil was $22 per barrel and the euro was worth $0.87 per dollar. Currently, gold is over $700 per ounce, oil is over $80 per barrel, and the euro is nearly $1.40 per dollar. Some economists are talking about oil at $125 per barrel by next spring. The recent cut in interest rates will pour fuel on the flames.

　　

　　The boom in the USA has been a consumer boom, fed by credit. As Marx explains, credit is a way of expanding the market beyond its natural confines. But this has its limits and these have now been reached. If the capitalists cannot find markets for their commodities, no surplus value will be realised and a crisis of overproduction will ensue.

　　

　　The American worker is now producing on average thirty percent more now than ten years ago, yet wages have stagnated for the last six years. Rising prices signify a cut in real wages. The same is true for pensioners and others on a fixed income. Even without a recession the American people will see an erosion of their standard of living. Many poor Americans are already struggling just to make ends meet. Now millions will be threatened with the loss of their jobs and homes. This will provoke an upsurge in strikes and class conflict such as the USA has not seen since the 1930s.

　　

　　The rate cut is at best a temporary palliative. It will not revive the housing market. That carnival is over. The banks, having burnt their fingers, are tightening lending standards and the housing inventory is larger than any time since records began. The resulting fall in house prices will affect consumer spending, bringing about a contraction of demand. The real effect of the interest cut will be an increase in inflation.

　　

　　The inflation in the stock market was already staggering before this. The market capitalization of all US stocks grew from $5.3 trillion at the end of 1994 to $17.7 trillion at the end of 1999 to $35 trillion at the end of 2006, generating a geometric increase in price earnings ratios and so on. This was not the result of an expansion of productive activity but because of a massive increase in fictitious capital: more dollars chasing the same number of securities.

　　

　　"What goes up must come down". This applies not only to the law of gravity but also to the stock market. The dizzying rise of share prices and house prices is preparing the way for an equally steep fall in the future. There will be repossessions, losses, bankruptcies and defaults, despite the actions of the Fed.

　　

　　Global impact
The investment banks are hoping that a cut in the Fed's fund rate will send the stock market soaring again. But a cut in the interest rate does not solve the fundamental problems. It does not eliminate insolvency among homeowners, mortgage lenders, hedge funds and banks. Far from solving the problem, it will ultimately make it worse.

　　

　　The US market is already awash with liquidity as the result of the antics of Alan Greenspan, which produced the present housing bubble - the biggest speculative boom in history. By reducing the cost of borrowing, the Fed is only creating a further extension of credit and indebtedness at all levels. It will prolong and exacerbate the housing and the credit bubbles. As one market-analyst said: "A cut in the Fed Fund rate is simply heroin for credit junkies."

　　

　　From a capitalist point of view this is the height of irresponsibility. It is

　　

　　better to let bankrupt companies (including banks) close than to cut interest rates and encourage "irrational exuberance" that will eventually undermine the dollar and the entire financial system in the USA. Sooner or later this bubble will burst and the consequences will be even more painful. If the US authorities are not willing to take action, the markets will take it for them.

　　

　　As we have seen, the bourgeois always seeks to explain economic phenomena in terms of "confidence", as if this were entirely subjective. It is not. The "confidence" of investors is based on very real material considerations. As long as the US economy was going forward, even though the fundamentals were unsound, the bourgeois of other countries were prepared to invest in it. They paid no attention to the colossal levels of debt and the huge deficits, including a current account deficit of around $800 billion a year. The US needs to raise at least $70 billion every month just to cover this deficit.

　　

　　America has changed from being the biggest world creditor to the biggest debtor, with net external liabilities of $3,000bn. The savings rate has fallen below zero for the first time since the Great Depression of the 1930s. At present China and other Asian countries hold huge stocks of dollars and US bonds. It is not in their interest to provoke an economic collapse in the USA, and the Americans are banking on this. But there are limits to all things. Sooner or later the unsound nature of the US economy will provoke an international run on the dollar. Lower interest rates will not bring money back into the markets, but they will further undermine the dollar.

　　

　　By lowering interest rates the Federal Reserve is entering onto very dangerous ground. The US economy is defying the laws of gravity. It is so unsound that it is unthinkable that the present situation should last for long. Eventually foreigners will worry that the dollars and bonds they are holding will not be worth the paper they are written on. And why should they want to lend money at low rates in a currency that is declining in value when they can take these same funds and lend them at high rates in a currency that is gaining in value

　　

　　The rest of the world will not be willing forever to finance the United States' tendency to consume far more than it produces. There are already signs of this. Paradoxically, it seems that the first ones to panic are the Saudis, the main allies of Washington in the Arab World, who have huge investments in the USA. Saudi Arabia has refused to cut interest rates in step with the US Federal Reserve for the first time, signalling that the oil-rich Gulf kingdom is preparing to break the dollar currency peg. This move risks setting off a stampede out of the dollar across the Middle East.

　　

　　For its part, the Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation. Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, said any such sanctions would undermine American authority and "could trigger a global cycle of protectionist legislation". This indicates the real dangers that now face the USA and the whole world economy. What really turned the slump of 1929 into the Great Depression that lasted ten years till the outbreak of the Second World War was the protectionism, trade wars and competitive devaluations that undermined world trade.

　　

　　Greenspan predicts that the dollar is likely to fall in the coming years as the massive US deficit unwinds. "There will have to be a correction, and ultimately one of the things that will create it is the currency," he says. And by "correction" he means a slump.

　　

　　Jim Rogers, the commodity king and former partner of George Soros, said the Federal Reserve was playing with fire by cutting rates so aggressively at a time when the dollar was already under pressure. The risk is that a flight from US bonds could push up the long-term yields that form the base price of credit for most mortgages, driving the property market into even deeper crisis.

　　

　　"If Ben Bernanke starts running those printing presses even faster than he's already doing, we are going to have a serious recession. The dollar's going to collapse, the bond market's going to collapse. There's going to be a lot of problems," he said.

　　

　　At a certain stage a large number of foreign investors will lose confidence in the US economy. Then we will see the same kind of scenes we saw recently in Britain replicated on a global stage. There will be a run on the dollar just as there was a run on Northern Rock, and for the same reasons. If foreign investors fear they will not get their money back from "USA inc.", they will be queuing up to withdraw their funds. When that happened in Britain, the Bank of England intervened to support the bank by underwriting its deposits. But who will do this for the USA economy The Bank of England is the "lender of last resort" in Britain. But the USA is the "lender of last resort" for the entire world.

　　

　　In the recent period it has become fashionable to claim that a crisis in the USA will not affect the rest of the world. I have already dealt with this in my speech on world perspectives, The International Situation and Perspectives, published on Marxist.com. It contradicts all the arguments of the bourgeois economists on globalisation, which precisely means that the world economy is more integrated than at any other time in history. Major events in any large economy must affect other economies. This applies above all to the USA.

　　

　　This global interdependence was clearly revealed by the latest crisis, which began in the USA and rapidly spread to Europe and Britain. Now the banking crisis in Britain is affecting the rest of the world, as depositors, investors and savers absorb the lessons of the run on the fifth largest bank in Britain that almost provoked a general collapse. Mike Whitney put this very well when he wrote:

　　

　　"The same Force Five economic-hurricane that just touched ground in Great Britain is headed for America and gaining strength on the way.

　　

　　"A more powerful tsunami is about to descend on the United States where many of the banks have been engaged in the same practices and are using the same business model as Northern Rock. Investors are no longer buying CDOs, MBSs, or anything else related to real estate. No one wants them, whether they're sub-prime or not. That means that US banks will soon undergo the same type of economic gale that is battering the UK right now. The only difference is that the US economy is already listing from the downturn in housing and an increasingly jittery stock market.

　　

　　"That's why Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson rushed off to England yesterday to see if he could figure out a way to keep the contagion from spreading."

　　

　　The crisis of 1997-8 began in Asia, and then spread to Turkey, Poland, Russia, Brazil and Argentina, where it produced the collapse of December 2001. This provoked a virtual uprising on the streets of Buenos Aires and the collapse of the De la Rua government. Similar dramatic events are being prepared. Sudden changes can occur in any country in the world. This is an expression of the underlying instability of capitalism on a world scale. Not accidentally does Greenspan entitle his recent autobiography The Age of Turbulence.

　　

　　London, 24/9/07

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