股市危机和货币危机即将爆发构成第二轮金融危机

　　

　　tigergoo

　　

　　摘译：金融危机第二波即将上演，与第一波不同，此轮危机涉及到中国。美国国债可能只有唯一的买家了，那就是美联储。

　　

　　如果中国继续购买美国国债，此轮危机可能仅表现为股票市场危机，
如果中国抛弃美国国债，此轮危机可能表现为货币危机，
当然，最可能的是股市危机和货币危机同时发生的混合性危机。

　　

　　博主评论：如果仅仅是股市危机，美元大涨，黄金和其它所有商品一样将大跌；
如果是货币危机，黄金有骤涨50-100%的可能，美元无序暴跌，股市和其它商品也将大涨，但幅度远低于黄金；
混合性危机的话，股市大跌，美元大跌，商品可能涨，毫无疑问，最安全的只有黄金。可能先是股市危机，黄金大跌，结果突然货币危机来临，黄金掉头暴涨。
如果阴谋家的最终目的是控制全球货币发行权，做空美元，扰乱汇率，那么制造混合性危机是唯一选择。当然，美国政府会不会奋起反抗就不得而知了。
博主认为悬念在于：中国如果停止购买美国国债，美元暴跌，中国等于在自杀，所以现在美联储充分利用这种金融恐怖主义来滥印货币，老实巴交的中国人只能忍气吞声，但其他美元资产持有人是不是也一样忍气吞声呢？美元即将爆裂的火山口上，坐着中国人、阿拉伯人、日本人和欧洲人，无论谁先跑，还是都不跑，最后都是灰飞烟灭。
想起来LEAP团队的话：欧盟要么做美元崩溃的帮凶，要么做牺牲品。
难道中国不是一样吗？

　　Are US Treasuries About to Rally… or Crash

　　

　　Oct 28, 2009 - 04:19 PM Graham_Summers

　　

　　Historically, because the US was the #1 superpower (and the largest economy in the world), Treasuries have generally held to be one of the very few “risk free” investments on the planet. Consequently, Treasuries are where money runs to hide when the rest of the financial world is in trouble.

　　

　　You can see this in the below chart: as soon as the Financial Crisis began in earnest with the credit market lockup in July 2007, 30-Yr Treasuries broke above 112: a point of historical resistance. This told us two things:

　　

　　Treasuries were STILL considered a safe-haven

　　

　　The former point of upward resistance (112) was NOW the point of support (where Treasuries would bounce)

　　

　　
Today, thanks to a Fed Chairman who’s only skill lies in hitting “print,” today Treasuries may be in trouble… BIG trouble.

　　

　　As I’m sure you’re aware, starting in July 2007, the financial markets entered one of the most severe crises in history. In response to this, the US Feds (Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, etc.) have tried to prop up the financial system with numerous interventions.

　　

　　A brief recap of their moves are as follows:

　　

　　u The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates from 5.25-0.25% (Sept ’07-today)

　　

　　u The Bear Stearns deal/ Fed buys $30 billion in junk mortgages (March ’08)

　　

　　u The Fed opens various lending windows to investment banks (March ’08)

　　

　　u The SEC proposes banning short-selling on financial stocks (July ’08)

　　

　　u The Treasury buys Fannie/Freddie for $400 billion (Sept ’08)

　　

　　u The Fed takes over AIG for $85 billion (Sept ’08)

　　

　　u The Fed doles out $25 billion for the auto makers (Sept ’08)

　　

　　u The Feds’ $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) (Oct ’08)

　　

　　u The Fed buys commercial paper (non-bank debt) from non-financial firms (Oct ’08)

　　

　　u The Fed offers $540 billion to backstop money market funds (Oct ’08)

　　

　　u The Feds backs up to $280 billion of Citigroup’s liabilities (Oct ’08).

　　

　　u $40 billion more to AIG (Nov ’08)

　　

　　u Feds agree to back up $140 billion of Bank of America’s liabilities (Jan ’09)

　　

　　u Obama’s $787 Billion Stimulus (Jan ’09)

　　

　　u The Fed’s $300 billion Quantitative Easing Program (Mar ’09)

　　

　　u The Fed buying $1.25 trillion in agency mortgage backed securities (Mar ’09-’10)

　　

　　u The Fed buying $200 billion in agency debt (Mar ’09-’10)

　　

　　u Cash for Clunkers I & II (July-August ’09)

　　

　　
And that’s a BRIEF recap (I’m sure I left something out).

　　

　　Now, you can’t throw TRILLIONS of dollars around without damaging your country’s balance sheet (especially when the country already owed $9 trillion to begin with). So it’s no surprise that our creditors (China and Japan being the two largest) aren’t too pleased about the Feds profligate spending. As a consequence, they’ve all but stopped buying US debt (Treasuries).

　　

　　Indeed, between 1Q09 and 2Q09, Foreign Holders of US debt reduced their purchases from $159 billion in 1Q09 to $101 billion in 2Q09 (a 40% DECREASE). If it weren’t for the Fed’s own purchases of Treasuries ($164 billion out of $339 billion), the US Treasury market would have almost assuredly had numerous failed auctions in the last six months.

　　

　　In simple terms, China and Japan have made it clear in no uncertain terms that they want higher yields for them to start buying US debt again. And in order for yields to go higher … Treasuries have to FALL HARD.

　　

　　The warning signs are already there…

　　

　　When the Fed first announced its Quantitative Easing Program in March ’09, Treasuries began to a steep decline. They then bottomed out in June and have since begun moving in a well-defined trading range:

　　

　　Remember, the Fed bought $164 billion worth of Treasuries between March ’09 and June ’09. And Treasuries STILL collapsed during that time. Looking at the above chart, one can only imagine what kind of COLLAPSE would have occurred if this support hadn’t been there.

　　

　　With the Fed’s QE Program ending this week and Treasuries already moving rapidly towards the lower part of their trading range, it looks like we’re about to discover what the world REALLY thinks of US debt as an asset class.

　　

　　Thus we are at a point of MAJOR historical significance. It is NOW literally a question of WHICH Crisis is next. Something HAS to give. And it could be either stocks, bonds, or both.

　　

　　

　　Crisis

　　

　　What Happens

　　

　　Implications

　　

　　Stock Crisis Pt 2

　　

　　Stocks collapse, Treasuries/ Dollar rally, solvency issues take hold again

　　

　　China et al are still willing to buy US Debt just for safety’s sake with a low yield

　　

　　Currency Crisis

　　

　　Stocks rally, Dollar breaks support, Treasuries collapse, flight from Dollar intensifies/ massive inflation hits US

　　

　　China and friends call “BS” on Bernanke’s policies and kick the dollar to the curb, Fed is the only buyer of US debt

　　

　　US Crisis

　　

　　Stocks AND Bonds collapse, interest rates soar destroying US economy, ALL big banks implode, US financial system potentially shuts down

　　

　　Game, Set, Match for Bernanke and pals. Capital begins a full-fledged flight from US. US defaults on debt and loses economic superpower status

　　I, and the rest of the financial world for that matter, do not know which of these will unfold. However, it’s quite possible we’re heading for Option #3 since no one but the Fed is buying Treasuries in any large amount.

　　

　　Indeed, QE is about to end and Treasuries are already heading towards the bottom end of their trend line… at the exact same time that the Treasury is issuing another mega-load of debt: an astounding $180 billion this week, $116 billion of which is new debt.

　　

　　u $29 Billion in 91 Day Bills, October 26

　　

　　u $30 Billion in 182 Day Bills, October 26

　　

　　u $7 Billion in 4.5 Year TIPS, October 26

　　

　　u $44 Billion in 2 Year Notes, October 27

　　

　　u $41 Billion in 5 Year Notes, October 28

　　

　　u $31 Billion in 7 Year Notes, October 29

　　

　　Look at the below chart again… Any decisive break below 115 on the 30-year bond leaves 105 as the next support. Below that the next major support is 90. At that point we’re getting into some REALLY serious trouble…

　　

　　Thus, the question remains…

　　

　　Are Treasuries About to Rally (stocks collapse) OR implode

　　

　　Buckle up, cause we’re about to find out.

　　

　　I’m already preparing investors for what’s to come with a FREE Special Report detailing THREE investments that will explode when stocks start finally collapse. While most investors are complacently drifting towards the next Crisis lke lambs to the slaughter, my readers are already getting ready with my Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit.

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