美国救赎“两房”上不封顶，恶性通货膨胀已是100%可能
评论：现在明白Gene Arensberg发布做空美元预警的根源了。美国政府宣布救“两房”上不封顶，这种赤裸裸带头做空美元的行径，交易商还怕什么呢？奇怪的是，难道交易商能未卜先知？这些巨量美元空头头寸的建立是在该政策宣布前完成的。这个圣诞节大礼，表面上说中国几千亿美元的两房债券彻底安全了，美国政府上不封顶地救赎了。然而是不是也可以理解为：中国2.3万亿美元的外汇储备将被无上限地稀释，美联储无上限地印刷美元，黄金白银和商品可以无上限地上涨。一句话，通货膨胀无上限。
很多金融人士称2010年为“炸弹之旅”，房地美、房利美、AIG、各大银行，等等这些怀抱天量金融衍生品定时炸弹的机构可能会引爆，引发类似2008的严重通缩，但现在看来，美国政府从2009年的圣诞节就开始了“拆弹之旅”，可以预见，不久的将来，AIG的救赎也会被宣布上不封顶。拆弹的办法就是印钱，给予上不封顶的救赎待遇。
最近两周美元在毫无基本面支持的情况下飚升，可以看作是美元回光返照，美元指数将快速滑入67、57甚至47。当然，如果欧洲央行、英国央行、日本央行都宣布救赎上不封顶，那么美元指数未必跌那么厉害，甚至可能上涨，但黄金和商品将完全与美元指数脱钩。
元旦或者中国春节期间，中国会不会宣布明年的贷款和投资上不封顶？
纸币40年生命周期的魔咒已进入倒计时（1971年尼克松关闭黄金和美元兑换窗口，美元至此成为纯纸币），2010年末黄金收盘价会不会是5000美元，请先不要草率地否定。
博主提醒的是，请尽快登上诺亚方舟吧。
白宫宣布救“两房”上不封顶
上海证券 2009-12-26 09:00:49
圣诞前一天，美国政府也在忙着发放圣诞大礼。美国财政部周四宣布，将取消对两大房贷巨头——房利美和房地美总计4000亿美元的救助上限，这意味着无论“两房”未来三年出现多大亏损，政府都将全数“买单”。与此同时，为了“吸引并留住”优秀人才，监管部门还批准今年可向两房的CEO各自派发最多600万美元的年薪。
政府照单全收
根据财政部24日的声明，从明年第一季度开始直至2012年，财政部对“两房”提供支持的上限，可根据每家公司的季度损失而有所提高。
声明表示，不会要求“两房”在明年削减其抵押贷款相关投资组合规模，以便两家公司在近期能为楼市复苏提供更多支持。“两房”是美国住房抵押贷款的主要资金，所持有或担保的住房抵押贷款总额约为5万亿美元，占美国住房抵押贷款总额的一半。
财政部表示，之所以会改变政策支持这两家公司，是为了确保金融市场稳定，并给予这两家政府支持企业更多时间，来削减抵押贷款相关的风险敞口。财政部一高官表示，在政府持续提供支持的问题上，此举可令“两房”债券和抵押支持证券的投资者更加宽心。
当局也指出，此举并不意味着“两房”已接近各自2000亿美元的救助上限，而是基于原先救助条款即将到期，政府对其做了更新。由于外界普遍认为“两房”所需救助款将不可能超过4000亿美元，因此此举将不会对“两房”实际运行带来多少影响。
高管薪酬惹眼
同样在周四，“两房”还披露了其高管薪酬方案，其中显示，房利美CEO威廉姆斯和房地美CEO霍尔德曼今年最多将可以拿到600万美元，远高于当前的水平。具体的方案是：底薪90万美元，延期支付底薪310万美元，激励薪酬最高200万美元。这一薪酬方案已得到美国财政部和监管机构联邦住房金融局的批准。
上述高额薪酬无疑会引发广泛争议。自金融危机爆发以来，那些受政府救济的金融机构高管的薪酬就一直是众矢之的。过去一年，为保持两家公司的运转，财政部一共向两房注资约1120亿美元。
来自得州的共和党众议员亨萨林批评说，在失业率接近10％的情况下，把600万美元的奖金发放给实质上是联邦雇员的人，是“不合情理”的。他还批评当局在没有确定如何撤出纳税人资金的情况下就批准了新的薪酬方案。他说，在没有任何撤出计划的情况下这么做，同样是不合情理的。
不过，按照联邦监管机构的一份最新声明，给两房的高管提供足够高的薪酬，是为了“吸引并留住”最顶级的人才。
除了两位CEO的薪酬，两房的其他10位高管还将累计每年最多获得3010万美元的酬。不过监管部门称，总体上，两房今年的高管薪酬总额将比两家公司被接管前低40％。
据道，两家公司给高管的薪酬全部为现金。不过，政府也规定，房利美和房地美高管的所有重大决策都要征询政府的意见。
Treasury pledges unlimited bailouts for Fannie and FreddieBy J.W. Elphinstone Associated Press Friday, December 25, 2009
NEW YORK -- The government has handed its ATM card to beleaguered mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The Treasury Department said Thursday it removed the $400 billion financial cap on the money it will provide to keep the companies afloat. Already, taxpayers have shelled out $111 billion to the pair, and a senior Treasury official said losses are not expected to exceed the government's estimate this summer of $170 billion over 10 years.
Treasury Department officials said it will now use a flexible formula to ensure the two agencies can stand behind the billions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities they sell to investors. Under the formula, financial support would increase according to how much each firm loses in a quarter. The cap in place at the end of 2012 would apply thereafter.
By making the change before year-end, Treasury sidestepped the need for an OK from a bailout-weary Congress.
While most analysts say the companies are unlikely to use the full $400 billion, Treasury officials said they decided to lift the caps to eliminate any uncertainty among investors about the government's commitments. But the timing of the announcement on a traditionally slow news day raised eyebrows.
"The companies are nowhere close to using the $400 billion they had before, so why do this now" said Bert Ely, a banking consultant in Alexandria, Va. "It's possible we may see some horrendous numbers for the fourth quarter and, thus 2009, and Treasury wants to calm the markets."
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide vital liquidity to the mortgage industry by purchasing home loans from lenders and selling them to investors. Together, they own or guarantee almost 31 million home loans worth about $5.5 trillion, or about half of all mortgages. Without government aid, the firms would have gone broke, leaving millions of people unable to get a mortgage.
The biggest headwind facing the housing recovery has been the rise in foreclosures as unemployment remains high. The two companies, facing mounting losses from mortgage defaults, were taken over by the government in September 2008 under the authority of a law Congress passed in the summer of 2008.
So far the government has provided $60 billion to Fannie Mae and $51 billion to Freddie Mac. The assistance is being provided in exchange for preferred stock paying a 10 percent dividend. The Bush administration first pledged up to $100 billion in support for each company, an amount that was doubled to $200 billion for each by the Obama administration in February.
Treasury officials will provide an updated estimate for Fannie and Freddie losses in February when President Barack Obama sends his 2011 budget to Congress. Though the administration has yet to disclose its long-term plans for the two companies, they are unlikely to return to their former power and influence.
The news followed an announcement Thursday that the CEOs of Fannie and Freddie could get paid as much as $6 million for 2009, despite the companies' dismal performances this year.
Fannie's CEO, Michael Williams, and Freddie CEO Charles "Ed" Haldeman Jr. each will receive $900,000 in salary, $3.1 million in deferred payments next year, and another $2 million if they meet certain performance goals, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The pay packages were approved by the Treasury Department and the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates Fannie and Freddie.
That pay is far less than what their predecessors earned. Former Fannie CEO Daniel Mudd received $10.2 million in 2008 and former Freddie CEO Richard Syron pocketed $13.1 million. Both execs were ousted when federal regulators seized the companies in September 2008. The federal government blocked exit packages for the pair worth up to $24 million.
The chief executives' pay could spark new criticism about the government's numerous bailouts, but that may be unfounded, said Mark Borges, principal with management consulting firm Compensia.
Haldeman and Williams each could command between $5 million and $10 million in a similar position in the private sector, Borges estimated, and without the notable challenges and public scrutiny they face at these companies.
"I doubt too many people would look at these jobs and say, 'Gosh, I would love to go there for my next career move,'" Borges said. "The government is getting top notch executives to solve problems that are not easy to solve."
The bulk of their pay is also not guaranteed, Borges said, so these executives can't pocket and run and must meet certain long-term goals or risk giving some of it back.
Freddie Mac's board sets the performance goals for the chief executive, which won't be disclosed until next year. Fannie Mae's filing outlined its corporate goals including "being a recognized leader in the housing recovery," "protecting taxpayers," and "managing risk more effectively."
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac declined to offer further details on CEO performance goals.
Public anger over Wall Street pay boiled over earlier this year. In response, the Obama administration imposed pay curbs on banks that received government bailouts. All the major banks have since repaid their federal money, largely to escape caps on executive pay.
Former Bank of America Corp. CEO Ken Lewis, for example, agreed to forgo his salary and bonus this year under pressure from the government. Last year, he pocketed more than $9 million in total compensation. Bank of America received $45 billion in government assistance, which it has since repaid.
Freddie Mac hired Haldeman, a former mutual fund executive, in July. At the time, the company disclosed his annual salary of $900,000 but did not disclose other incentive payments. In September, the company hired a new chief financial officer, Ross Kari, and said his pay package would be worth up to $5.5 million.
Williams, formerly Fannie Mae's chief operating officer, took over as CEO in April after the first government-appointed CEO, Herbert Allison, took a job at the Treasury Department. Williams earned a base salary of $676,000 last year, plus a retention award of $260,000.
Washington-based Fannie Mae was created in 1938 in the aftermath of the Great Depression. It was privatized 30 years later to limit budget deficits during the Vietnam War. In 1970, the government formed its sibling and competitor McLean, Va.-based Freddie Mac.
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