LEAP-E2020致G20：必须在6月前建立新的国际储备货币
（转帖者按：LEAP/E2020团队的建议被G20的首脑接受的可能性不大。这些建议就算被G20采纳并实行了，也无法解决经济危机的问题。在资本主义大背景下，经济危机是无解的。）
翻译者tigergoo评论：博主tigergoo翻译完之后，不觉与中国央行的建议不谋而合！建立一个基于超主权的国际储备货币体系，包括货币及其管理机构。这个思路完全是蒙代尔的思路，运用最优货币区理论，计算一个货币篮子的加权数推出一个国际货币，根据经济体的规模决定该货币在新体系里面的权重。只是该信严格规定了实施这个计划的时间和进度，过于咄咄逼人，不知道G20的首脑能否忍受和接受。
令博主tigergoo不能接受的是，中国央行、LEAP/E2020团队和蒙代尔都没有指出黄金在新的国际货币体系中的作用，如果这个国际货币仍然是信用货币，而非诚实的货币，那么凭什么保证这个货币体系可以稳定世界经济和贸易呢？这种超主权的信用货币作为国际储备货币，似乎从理论上能够解决特里芬困境，却仍然无法避免“各干各的”，私自偷印本币去换取新的储备货币。没有商品或诚实的人类劳动支撑的货币，是难以完成国际储备货币的使命的。
伦敦20国集团首脑会议：全球地缘政治动荡前最后的机会
――致20国集团领导人的公开信
LEAP/E2020团队 2009年3月24日
女士们、先生们，
您将在几天后在伦敦召开首脑会议，您是否知道只有不到一个学期的时间来预防世界陷入危机，这个危机的解决至少需要十年的时间，还伴随着一系列的悲剧和骚乱？？因此，这封来自LEAP/E2020团队的公开信，将简要说明事件的起因和如何限制其进一步的损害，我们早在三年前就预见到“全球系统性危机”的到来。
如果在大半年年前您确实怀疑大规模的危机是否会发生，LEAP/E2020团队在其第二期发表了«全球欧洲预测公告»（GEAB 2），预测了世界即将进入史无前例的危机的触发阶段。
从那以后，月复一月，LEAP/E2020团队继续无情地对这场令世界苦苦挣扎的危机的进展进行高度准确的预测。出于这个原因，我们认为我们团队有资格给您写这封公开信，希望这将帮助您在几天之内做出抉择。
这场危机越来越危险。最近，在第32版的公中，我们对作为20国集团的领导人的您直接相关的问题进行了预警。如果在4月2日的伦敦集会时您还不能就至关重要的问题采取一系列大胆和创新的决定，并且从2009年夏天开始实施，那么到今年年底危机将导致全面的地缘政治动荡，这将影响着国际体系和大型结构的政治实体，如美国，俄罗斯，中国和欧盟。您所掌握的全世界60亿居民的命运的任何机会将稍纵即逝。
您的选择：一个3－5年的危机，抑或是至少10年的危机？
到现在为止您仅仅是在关注这场危机相关的症状和继发效应，但不幸的是，面对这样一个历史性规模的危机，您毫无防备。您认为向全球的引擎注入更多的燃料就足够了，却不知道这样一个事实，即引擎已经毁坏，根本就没有修复的希望。
事实上，全球必须建立一个新的引擎，而且当国际体系月复一月地恶化，您所剩的时间已经不多了。
对于如此重大的危机，我们必须触及问题的核心。唯一的选择是进行大量根本性的改革，从而大大缩短危机的周期并减少结局的悲剧色彩，或者相反，拒绝做出任何试图挽救现行制度的改革，从而延长危机的期限并增加消极的后果。在4月2日的伦敦，您可以通过一个有组织的方式在3至5年内平稳地解决危机，或将世界拖入一个可怕的十年。
我们将给您具有战略意义的三个建议，如果这些建议不能从2009年夏天开始实施，从今年年底开始的全球地缘政治动荡将不可避免。
LEAP的三个战略性建议
1. 解决危机的关键在于建立一个新的国际储备货币！
第一项建议是一个非常简单的想法：改革二战后继承下来的国际货币体系，并建立新的国际储备货币。
美国的美元和经济已不能支持目前的全球经济、金融和货币秩序。只要这一战略问题不直接解决，危机就将恶化。实际上这是衍生金融品危机、银行危机、能源价格危机的核心……这些危机的后果是大规模失业和生活水平的崩溃。因此，这个至关重要的问题应该是20国集团首脑会议的主要议题，并且这是开始解决危机的第一步。其实解决这一问题的办法是众所周知的，即建立一个基于世界上最大的经济体相对应的一篮子货币形成的国际储备货币（这个货币可称为“global”），这些货币篮子包括美元、欧元、日元、人民币、卡力吉（Khaleeji，由海湾石油生产国将于2010年1月推出的单一货币）、卢布、里亚尔…, 该储备货币由“世界货币研究所”管理，研究所董事会的构成将反映经济体的比重。
您必须要求国际货币基金组织和有关中央银行于2009年6月准备这个计划，其实施日期应定在2010年1月1日。
这是唯一的方法，可以让您重新控制目前的平仓活动，并且让您实现基于一个共同的货币的全球共同管理，该货币处于经济和金融的活动中心。如果这个针对目前正在崩溃的系统的替代方案不能在今年夏天开始，事实将证明“各干各的”方案将大行其道，当今的国际体系将无法生存在今年夏天。
如果20国集团的某些国家认为在尽可能长的时间内保持现有特权更好的话，他们应该面对事实，如果他们今天仍然可以极大地影响这个新的全球货币体系的未来形态，一旦全球地缘政治动荡阶段开始，他们将失去这样的影响力。
2. 尽快建立银行管制计划！
第二项建议已在即将举行的首脑会议的初步辩论中多次提到，因此应该很容易通过。
在今年年底前要在全球范围内创造一个银行管制计划，以禁止所有系统的“黑洞”。您的专家已经提了大量的建议。现在您要下定决心：尽快国有化金融机构！
3. 让国际货币基金组织来评估美国、英国和瑞士的金融系统！
第三项建议涉及到一个不容忽视的政治上敏感的问题。
2009年7月之前，国际货币基金组织要提交给20国集团关于金融危机的核心国美国、英国和瑞士金融系统的独立评估。
如果您不能清晰地理解全球金融体系的三大支柱的内部所遭受危机的损害，这些可持续的建议就不会得到有效执行。
已经没有时间礼貌地对待那些处于金融危机风暴眼里的国家了。
写一个简单而简短的声明！
最后，请允许我们提醒您，您的任务是恢复60亿人的信心，以及数以百万计的公营及私营机构。因此，不要忘了写一个简短的声明－不超过2页，提出最多3到4个关键的想法，让老百姓可以阅读和理解。如果你没这样做，除了一小部分专家，没有人会理解你所说的。那么您将无法恢复广大市民的信任，危机则定会变得更糟。
如果这封公开信可以帮助您明白历史将根据本次首脑会议的成败来判断您，那么它是有用的。您的市民将不会再等待一年以上才判断你。
至少此时此刻，您不能说没有人警告过您！
LEAP/E2020研究部主任：弗兰克.比昂盖里
2009年3月24日
原文：
London G20 Summit: Last chance before global geopolitical dislocationOpen letter to the G20 leaders, published in the Financial Times' worldwide edition on 03/24/2009
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Your next summit takes place in a few days in London; but are you aware that you have less than a semester to prevent the world from plunging into a crisis that will take at least a decade to resolve, accompanied by a whole series of tragedies and ferment Therefore, this open letter by LEAP/E2020, who saw the arrival of a « global systemic crisis » as early as three years ago, intends to briefly explain why it happened and how to limit further damage.
If indeed you began to suspect the onset of a sizeable crisis less than a year ago, LEAP/E2020, in the second issue of their « Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin » (GEAB N°2), anticipated that the world was about to enter into the « trigger phase » of a crisis of historic proportions. Since then, month after month, LEAP/E2020 has relentlessly continued to produce highly accurate forecasts of the development of this crisis with which the world is now struggling. For this reason, we feel entitled to write you this open letter which we hope will aid you on the choices you will have to make in a few days.
This crisis is getting more and more dangerous. Recently, in the 32nd edition of its Bulletin, LEAP/E2020 raised an alarm of direct concern to you, the leaders of the G20. If, when gathered in London next April 2nd, you are not able to adopt a number of bold and innovative decisions, focused on the essential issues and problems, and to initiate them by summer 2009, then the crisis will entail a « general geopolitical dislocation » by the end of the year, affecting the international system as well as the very structure of large political entities such as the United States, Russia, China or the EU. Any chance for you to control the fate of the 6 billion inhabitants of the world will then be over.
Your choice: a 3- to 5-year crisis or a decade-at-least long crisis
Until now you have merely been concerned with the symptoms and secondary effects of this crisis because, unfortunately, nothing prepared you to face a crisis of such an historic scale. You thought that adding more oil to the global engine would be enough, unaware of the fact that the engine was broken, with no hope of repair. In fact, a new engine must be built, and time is running out, as the international system deteriorates further each month.
In the case of a major crisis, one must get to the heart of the matter. The only choice is between undertaking a number of radical changes, thus greatly shortening the duration of the crisis and diminishing its tragic outcome or, on the contrary, refusing to make any such changes in an attempt to save what is left of the present system, thus extending the crisis’ duration and increasing all the negative consequences. In London, next April 2nd, you can either pave the way for the crisis to be solved in an organised manner in 3 to 5 years, or drag the world through a terrible decade.
We will content ourselves with giving you three recommendations that we consider strategic ones in the sense that, according to LEAP/E2020, if they have not been initiated by this summer 2009, global geopolitical dislocation will become inevitable from the end of this year onward.
LEAP'S THREE STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS
1. The key to solving the crisis lies in creating a new international reserve currency!
The first recommendation is a very simple idea: reform the international monetary system inherited post-wwii and create a new international reserve currency. The US Dollar and economy are no longer capable of supporting the current global economic, financial and monetary order. As long as this strategic problem is not directly addressed and solved, the crisis will grow. Indeed it is at the heart of the crises of derivative financial products, banks, energy prices... and of their consequences in terms of mass unemployment and collapsing living standards. It is therefore of vital importance that this issue should be the main subject of the G20 summit, and that the first steps towards a solution are initiated. In fact, the solution to this problem is well-known, it is about creating an international reserve
currency (which could be called the « Global ») based on a basket of currencies corresponding to the world’s largest economies, i.e. US dollar, Euro, Yen, Yuan, Khaleeji (common currency of oil-producing Gulf states, to be launched in January 2010), Ruble, Real..., managed by a « World Monetary Institute » whose Board will reflect the respective weight of the economies whose currencies comprise the « Global ». You must ask the imf and concerned central banks to prepare this plan for June 2009, with an implementation date of January 1st, 2010. This is the only way for you to regain some control over currently unwinding events, and this is the only way for you to bring about shared global management, based on a shared currency located at the centre of economic and financial activity. According to LEAP/E2020, if this alternative to the currently collapsing system has not been initiated by this summer 2009, proving that there is another solution than the « every man for himself » approach, today’s international system will not survive this summer.
If some of the G20 states think that it is better to maintain the privileges related to the « status quo » as long as possible, they should meditate the fact that, if today they can still significantly influence the future shape of this new global monetary system, once the phase of global geopolitical dislocation has started they will lose any capacity to do so.
2. Set up bank control schemes as soon as possible!
The second recommendation has already been mentioned many times in the preliminary debates to your upcoming summit. It should therefore be easy to adopt. It is about creating, before the end of this year, a scheme of bank control on a global scale, suppressing all the system’s « black holes ». A number of options have already been suggested by your experts. Make up your mind now: nationalize financial institutions as soon as is necessary! It is the only way to prevent a new episode of massive indebtment by them (the kind of episode which significantly contributed to the current crisis), and to show to the general public that you have some credibility to deal with bankers.
3. Get the IMF to assess the US, UK and Swiss financial systems!
The third recommendation relates to a politically sensitive issue, which cannot be ignored. It is essential that, no later than July 2009, the imf presents to the G20 an independent assessment of the three national financial systems at the heart of the current financial crisis: US, UK and Switzerland. No sustainable recommendation can be efficiently implemented as long as no one has any clear understanding of the damage caused by the crisis inside these three pillars of the global financial system. It is no longer time to be polite with the countries located at the centre of the current financial chaos.
Write a simple and short statement!
Finally, please allow us to remind you that your task is to restore confidence among 6 billion people and among millions of public and private organisations. Therefore do not forget to write a short statement – no more than 2 pages, presenting a maximum of 3 to 4 key ideas that non-experts can read and understand. If you fail to do so, no one will read what you have to say apart from a narrow circle of specialists, therefore you will not revive confidence among the general public and the crisis will be doomed to get worse.
If this open letter helps you to feel that History will judge you according to the success or failure of this Summit, then it has been useful. According to LEAP/E2020, your citizens will not wait any longer than a year before they judge you. This time at least, you will not be able to say no one warned you!
Franck Biancheri
Director of studies of LEAP/E2020,
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