未世民评论：其实我也认为美国联储的做法是在引暴另一个金融与经济泡沫，诚如下文的所说直到美联储通过定量宽松政策与负利率政策炒作的全球性金融市场大泡沫彻底破裂，美国国债市场彻底崩溃，债券市场全面倒塌，今年六月彼尔德伯格会议上有一个摧毁美元的国际银行家计划，当时克林姆林宫里有人为总理与总统准备了关于这方面的告，当时听起来让人感觉有点耸人听闻，可是实际上如果你长期研究金融市场你就会发现这一计划有很大的可能性，反正我当时仔细的研究了这一会议的计划，同时还再次读了关于彼尔德伯格俱乐部的大部分研究资料，我相信在某种程度上存在一个系统性的毁灭美元的计划，这里有很多的证据，如宋鸿兵提出的斯泰尔，蒙代尔，LEAP--E2020研究机构等。同时市场上存在着巨大的美元作空与全球金融市场作多的研究机构。历史也许是巧合，但我不相信会有如此多的巧合，当全球性的金融市场陷入疯狂之时，没有人会想到正是美元与美国国债和各式各样的债券会出现出其不意的大危机，然后这种大危机会在一夜之间导致国际货币体系出现重大的混乱，而债券市场有可能会被毁灭，这是个历史性的危机，也许这就是宋先生所说的更大的金融危机正在被各国的中央银行向后推迟。

　　

　　今天看了张庭宾先生的文章，我与先生们有相近的看法，我相信我们走在一个很大的房地产泡沫危机的路上，早在去年的一篇文章中我就有这种看法，我也认为顾虎先生所说的击鼓传花的结束时间已经不远了，这种泡沫破裂对经济有严重的影响，在那种情况下，我应当思考我们的未来结局究竟如何。

　　

　　 　　

　　 我一直坚持说，最近在美国联邦储备委员会将不... ...不将预示着在本周的政策会议结束宽松的货币环境。 I have been adamant recently in saying that the Federal Reserve would not … would NOT … signal an end to the easy money environment at this week's policy meeting. 这些家伙只是缺乏政治意志和倾向做正确的事情。 These guys simply lack the political willpower and the inclination to do what's right. 他们想保持酒流向资产膨胀的长期后果是该死的。 They want to keep the booze flowing to inflate assets, the long-term consequences be darned. );　果然，周三，美联储重申，这不是在大约资产或商品价格上升，均担心。 Sure enough, the Fed reiterated Wednesday that it's not worried at all about the surge in asset or commodity prices. 它说， It said,

　　

　　“大量的资源松懈[是]可能继续抑制成本压力和长期通胀预期稳定，委员会希望通货膨胀率将维持疲弱一段时间。” “Substantial resource slack [is] likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.”

　　

　　不仅如此，美联储还表示，将维持低利率，直到母牛回家。 Not only that, the Fed also said it will keep rates low until the cows come home. 具体来说，它说，它... Specifically, it said that it …

　　

　　“...仍期望经济条件，包括对资源利用率低利率，温和通胀趋势，稳定通胀预期，有可能需要特别的联邦基金利率水平低长时间。” ” … continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”

　　

　　联邦公开市场委员会并不担心通货膨胀。 The FOMC isn't worried about inflation.

　　

　　唯一的变化，美联储没有信号？ The only change the Fed did signal 它会买急升至1.75亿美元的所谓“代理”债务略低于2000亿美元的原定目标。 That it'll buy up to $175 billion in so-called “agency” debt, slightly below its previous target of $200 billion. 但是，它仍然会购买按揭美元证券。 But it's still going to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities.

　　

　　而且这不买的房利美和房地美发行的债券，因为它少突然意识到这种愚蠢的“货币化”美国的债务... And it's not buying fewer bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because it suddenly realized the folly of “monetizing” US debt obligations …

　　

　　...这是因为“有限的机构债券”购买。 … it's because of the “limited availability of agency debt” to buy. 换言之，美联储担心它的过弯和扭曲了市场...它是！ In other words, the Fed is afraid it's cornering and distorting the market … which it is!

　　

　　永不忘记：“积极”是在华盛顿的一个肮脏的词 Never Forget: “Proactive” Is A Dirty Word in Washington

　　

　　为什么我一直说你应该忘记空话您担心紧缩政策的听证会？ Why have I been saying you should forget the empty talk you're hearing about tighter policy 因为行动是最重要的。 Because action is what counts. 它是非常清楚的，我认为， 美联储不会采取行动 ， 直到它迫使美元崩溃，债券市场崩溃，或两者组合 。 And it is abundantly clear to me that the Fed won't take action until it's forced to by a dollar crash, a bond market collapse, or some combination of both.

　　

　　这些活动是很重要的信号，市场已经失去了在美联储控制通货膨胀的能力和信心，美国政府愿意维持美元的价值，因此需要政策回应。 Those events would be important signals that the market has lost confidence in the Fed's ability to control inflation and in the US government's willingness to preserve the value of the dollar, necessitating a policy response.

　　

　　“积极”是非常简单，在华盛顿肮脏的词汇。 “Proactive” is quite simply a dirty word in Washington. 政客（这包括美联储成员，无论怎样他们喜欢假装他们不是政治动物）不喜欢到危机前搬迁 ... 仅仅时隔让他们政治借口这样做。 Politicians (and this includes Fed members, no matter how much they like to pretend they're not political creatures) don't like to move before a crisis … only after one gives them the political cover to do so.

　　

　　事实上，历史是清楚的：不是主动收紧世纪90年代末的货币政策，以平息在科技股的疯狂投机，美联储忽视了泡沫，直到它烧毁了数以百万计的投资者的投资组合。 Indeed, history is clear: Rather than proactively tighten monetary policy in the late-1990s to quell the insane speculation in tech stocks, the Fed ignored the bubble until it gutted the portfolios of millions of investors. 然后美联储忽视了2003-2006年房地产泡沫，直到它毁了房主百万人的生命。 Then the Fed ignored the 2003-2006 housing bubble until it ruined the lives of millions of homeowners.

　　

　　美联储刚向市场 ， 让快乐时光！ The Fed just told the markets to let the good times roll!

　　

　　现在，美联储正在做同样的事情了 ，但在一个更加宏伟的规模。 Now, the Fed is doing the same thing again , but on an even grander scale. 这是阳光下的膨胀几乎所有资产-垃圾债券，公司债券，黄金，商品，股票，你能想到的。 It's inflating virtually every asset under the sun — junk bonds, corporate bonds, gold, commodities, stocks, you name it. ，而不是积极采取措施，控制市场...才失控...他们只是说，本周的市场，让快乐时光！ And rather than proactively taking steps to control the markets … before they get OUT of control … they just told the market this week to let the good times roll!

　　

　　稳压器，美国国会研究的其他方式 ， 而房利美，房地美，以及大型银行开自己的悬崖！ Regulators, Congress looked the other way while Fannie, Freddie, and mega-banks drove themselves off a cliff!

　　

　　这不只是美联储的决策者。 It's not just Fed policymakers. 这是银行监管机构和国会的压力！ It's the banking regulators and Congress, too!

　　

　　看看房利美和Freddie Mac。 Look at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 人们警告多年，它们将承担很大的风险...他们过于分散和资本...住房暴跌掩埋。 People were warning for years that they were taking on too much risk … that they were too thinly capitalized … and that a housing crash would bury them.

　　

　　不过，华盛顿使这两个机构继续自己的快乐方式，堆积如山的债务和风险相当庞大。 But Washington allowed the two agencies to go on their merry way, piling up huge amounts of debt and risk. 我们都知道发生了什么，然后：他们炸毁了，需要的数百亿美元的纳税人资助的援助资金。 We all know what happened then: They blew up, requiring tens of billions of dollars in taxpayer-funded bailout money.

　　

　　同上的银行正在作出鲁莽，高风险住房抵押贷款，抵押贷款和商业房地产贷款。 Ditto for the banks that were making reckless, high-risk home equity loans, mortgages, and commercial real estate loans. 许多观察家，包括我们，都高喊着他们的屋顶，这将导致灾难。 Many observers, including us, were shouting from the rooftops that this would end in disaster.

　　

　　但是，而不是关闭使这些贷款的贷款人，或迫使他们削减了高风险贷款，所有的监管所做的问题，甜蜜蜜的“指导”的信件。 But rather than shut down the lenders making these loans, or FORCE them to cut back on their risky lending, all the regulators did was issue mealy-mouthed “guidance” letters. 该银行所忽视，因为他们已经没有牙齿。 The banks ignored them because they had no teeth. 而不是后不久，这些银行开始下降像多米诺骨牌。 And not too long after, those banks began to fall like dominoes.

　　

　　底线：我不喜欢美联储的资产膨胀的现行政策。 Bottom line: I don't LIKE the Fed's current policy of asset inflation. 我知道这将结束在流泪。 I know it's going to end in tears. 但是，直到这些事件我刚才（货币崩溃，债券市场崩溃等）出现，迫使政策的改变，导致了势头的转变，我们唯一能做的个人投资者是跟着玩，努力使尽可能多钱越好。 But until those events I mentioned earlier (currency crash, bond crash, etc.) occur, forcing a change in policy and leading to a shift in momentum, the only thing we can do as individual investors is play along and try to make as much money as possible.

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