预警：美元正在加速下滑，近期可能塌方
钱学深
2009-10-14
多种信息提示美元近期可能出现严重危机。黄金冲破1063 美元/盎司，石油突破75美元/桶，道指突破点均与美元危机相关。上一波金融海啸表现为次贷危机，正在到来的金融海啸则主要是冲击美元，以美元为突破口进而震撼全球经济。拉鲁什认为危机10月底或稍后不久开始爆发，美国只有靠破产保护才能解脱。Jim Sinclair认为从11月初开始，今冬美元市场形势将相当严峻。美元崩溃临界点在71点（今天是75.3上下）。黄金在今后几年内将首先冲击1224美元，回挡后挑战1650 美元。 我们去年成功预警华尔街股市崩盘所引用的计算机预系统最近提示10月25日前后美元市场会有大的异常。望大家做好相应准备。
This evening in Asian trade, the Japanese Minister of Finance once again restated the new view out of Japan that the level of the Yen is no longer an obsession with the monetary authorities of that nation. His comments were interpreted by the Forex markets that intervention to stem the advance of the Yen is most unlikely. With that, market participants wasted little time bidding the Yen into a strong advance.
Those statements of his, combined with that of Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Donald Kohn, that the US economy would not experience a quick or sharp recovery out of its recession, were both read by traders that US interest rates were not going anywhere anytime soon. Carry traders then beat the Dollar down below critical support near the 76 level on the USDX as they rushed into higher yielding currencies such as the Aussie and Loonie. The Euro also shot up to another new yearly high.
It is looking more and more like the current Administration has set on a course of deliberate destruction of the US Dollar and with it, the economic might that the US has enjoyed since post World War II. As said many times on the pages of this web site, the profligacy of the US has inescapable consequences and we are now seeing a rapid acceleration of the same. The fall in the Dollar is picking up momentum and that is why we are witnessing gold moving into new highs.
But gold is more than a Dollar phenomenon – Gold priced in terms of British Pounds and in Euros is relentlessly moving higher as both Great Britain and Europe, the fading West, are debasing their currencies as well.
Protect yourself from the theft of your wealth by these conscienceless politicians and monetary officials for they have sold their citizenry down the river and plundered them in the process far more thoroughly than Attila and his army of Huns ever did to Rome of old. At least the Roman inhabitants were aware of the rape and pillaging of their substance – when the general public finally awakens to the despicable looting of their treasures by these reeking buzzards, they will rush into gold with a fury that will shock even many of the readers of this site.
Click chart to enlarge this evening’s action in the US Dollar in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
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What More is There to Say Posted: Oct 14 2009By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: October 14, 2009 at 6:32 pm
Dear CIGAs,
We can keep you updated on developments and Trader Dan can keep you updated on technical matters as the drama in gold will never end.
The dollar is headed for much bigger trouble quite soon.
Gold is going to $1224, $1650 and then on to Alf’s numbers.
The US dollar will touch its past low, fight a bit, but then give it up to the carry trade and fundamental economics.
All we have warned you of is happening now.
The countdown of days needs to be understood as a countdown for just what is happening. That countdown is to the faltering of a major area of dollar support becoming invalid as the carry trade monster devours any currency it adopts.
Interest rates cannot be raised to favor the dollar without throwing the MOPE recovery directly into the circular file.
Confidence in the dollar is waning with every passing day. As Armstrong has told you, one day soon confidence will simply implode.
This is a product of a lifetime of mistakes of which no one person can be considered the author. It is the sum of wrong economics, rewarding activities that produce nothing but paper shuffling, and punishing activities that produce goods, human services and employment.
Within one week of the countdown the dollar will take out areas expected to be the bottom of this decline by many talking heads today. That is a dynamic event as was what Trader Dan spoke of here on JSMineset last evening.
What has occurred are the things that economic history is made of> Few outside of Trader Dan and the most attentive CIGAs were really shaken by the occurrence.
This is what the countdown is all about. Look out the window and see it happening. It is history in the making but no more than what happened yesterday at lower levels.
The end is NOT coming. It has already happened. Are you insulated from the results thereof
Sincerely,
Jim
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