tigergoo评论：据博主对国际金融市场的观察，黄金多头已经在金价两次探底1109美元附近完成初步建仓，现在多头言论很快出现在主流媒体：
Neil Charnock于2009－12－14发表《车已到站，请上车》，说明黄金本轮调整已经完成；Howard Ruff于2009－12－15发表《机会在敲门，美元将崩溃》。现在是Adam Brochert发表的《纸币拉据战》。

　　

　　博主感到，国际金融市场已经开始意识到美元指数是一系列纸币的换算关系，因此对黄金的影响不应该那么大。2008年美元从70反弹到89，重击了黄金，达到了两个主要的战略目标：

　　

　　1.美元急剧反弹，导致非美货币骤贬，为美元纸币和这些纸币互换制造了很好的借口，从而实现国际金融势力期待已久的全球纸币集体贬值的目标；

　　

　　2.重创黄金，将黄金从1033美元打压到680美元，为黄金多头建仓提供了历史性机遇。

　　

　　接下来，大戏正式开始登场，那就是黄金多头簇拥着黄金，重新回到货币帝王的宝座。

　　

　　请记住：纸币也好，黄金也罢，背后是人在操纵。

　　

　　当所有纸币向黄金低头，也就意味着拥有纸币的各主权国家政府，向拥有黄金的国际金融势力低头。

　　

　　而本文，便是黄金对所有纸币发动总攻的战争檄文。

　　

　　纸币拉锯战，黄金很快将再创新高

2009年12月17日03:47新浪财经　　

　　新浪财经讯 著名投资人亚当·布罗切特(Adam Brochert)12月16日发表评论文章称，美元汇率的涨跌对黄金(1141.50,6.00,0.53%)而言是无足轻重的，黄金大牛市才刚刚开始。

　　

　　以下是评论文章摘译：

　　

　　看着某国的法定货币(纸币)相对于另一国货币涨涨跌跌也许是有意思的事情，但对于那些过于认真对待它们的人，却具有误导作用。

　　

　　人们所关注的货币对或货币指数所衡量的只是一种纸币相对于另一种纸币的比值。交易者们会去交易这些货币对，但它是否是一种有价值的衡量通胀、通缩或价格强度的标尺呢？只是在非常有限的意义上。换句话来讲，美元指数上升只是意味着美元纸币可以购买数量更多的欧元纸币。

　　

　　在当前经济环境下，一种纸币相对于另一种纸币汇率的涨跌让我想到了荡秋千——一种货币升值，然后贬值，货币对中的另一种货币则相反。

　　

　　但如果我们将这个秋千用绳子捆住，绳子另一端牢牢地系在一个5000磅重的锚上，然后将它从飞机上扔下去，结果会怎么样呢？此时两种纸币之间此起彼伏的运动相对于它们共同经历的自由落体运动，真的具有重要意义吗？显然，这个问题的答案有赖于一个人的时间期限和他的目标。

　　

　　这个秋千的比喻对我而言并非无足轻重的。因为这正是我们当前的国际货币体系，而这一体系正在以惊人的速度奔向一场灾难。不论美元在再次下跌之前是否会上涨几个百分点，这都无关紧要，重要的是联邦政府和美联储已经摧毁了美元的基础。在无法偿还的债务之上堆积更多无法偿还的债务，仅仅是因为自己有能力这么做，其后果绝对不会是一件小事。令人疯狂的事情是，全球几乎所有其他大国都乐于效仿美国，其中有些国家财政状况比美国还糟糕。这一切怎么可能有个好结局？

　　

　　历史和我迄今为止接受到的教育告诉我：

　　

　　·任何货币体系存在的时间都不会超过40-50年，不论它是金本位的还是非金本位的。如果是金本位的，那么在出现问题的时候，金本位就会被撤销或掺水。如果不是金本位，货币就会被那些疯狂印钞和发债的家伙搞得一文不值。当货币出现问题的时候，黄金就是保护你的存款可靠的方式。

　　

　　·一个负债累累、没有存款的国家不会看到自己的货币涨到天上去。美国是一个巨大的债务国，已非20世纪30年代的那个债权国，也没有20世纪90年代的日本那么多的存款。就像2008年那样，美元会走出短暂的轧空行情，但持续的牛市是不可能的。

　　

　　·黄金是对冲政府的癫狂和不稳定的极佳手段，而我们现在就处于一个政府癫狂和不稳定的长周期之中。黄金不仅仅是一种简单的资产类别，不仅仅是长久有效的对冲通胀或通缩的手段，也不仅仅是一种看跌美元的投资手段。

　　

　　·任何资产类别都会有自己的辉煌时代。现在轮到黄金进入辉煌了，黄金的长期牛市远未结束。有时候牛市上涨只是因为它一直在上涨，羊群效应导致动能和资本集中开始掌握主导，其持续过程要远远长于在理性情况下的时间。我们需要看到出现可与过去的互联网泡沫和房地产泡沫相提并论的公众对黄金的狂热，才能宣称黄金牛市要结束了。

　　

　　·黄金矿业是一个资本密集型行业。黄金采矿公司可以给我们提供一个黄金价格的杠杆，但这个杠杆并不是有保证的和长期一致的，会带来额外的风险。

　　

　　那些宣称黄金将会从当前位置崩溃的人正是2008年秋季宣称黄金并不是避风港的同一批人。去年秋季黄金在混乱中大幅下挫，证实了他们的说法。然而当2009年2月黄金回到每盎司1000美元的时候，这批人并没有做出什么深思熟虑的评论。这批人还说，今年秋季初期黄金只是相对于美元创出新高，但却忽视了2009年年初和数周前黄金两次相对于许多主要货币均创出新高。

　　

　　如果你愿意的话，也可以听从这些人的意见，但我认为我们现在迎来了买入黄金和大部分黄金矿业股的一个极好的机会。我认为黄金和黄金矿业股指数很快就会创出新高。

Paper Fiat Currencies Trampoline Jumping 　　

　　Currencies / Fiat Currency Dec 16, 2009 - 02:57 AMAdam_Brochert

　　

　　

　　Watching the national paper fiat currencies rising and falling relative to one another can be interesting, but it is misleading for many of those who take it seriously. When the U.S. Dollar Index is rising, Americans are gaining in their standard of living as it takes fewer dollars to buy things, right Not necessarily。

　　

　　
The currency pairs or currency indices that people follow simply measure one piece of paper versus another. If I created a calculators to televisions price ratio and called it a currency pair, there may be traders out there interested in guessing the next move in this ratio as a casino play. Traders trade. But is this a valuable metric of inflation, deflation or price strength Only in a very limited sense. In other words, it is true that a rising U.S. Dollar Index means that the U.S. Dollar paper note can generally buy a greater number of paper Euro notes (at least given the way the U.S. Dollar Index is currently constructed).

The rise and fall of paper currency notes relative to one another in the current economic setting reminds me of a seesaw - one currency goes up, then it goes down while its pair currency does the opposite. One currency may rise a little more in net terms over a period of time or vice versa based on various factors.

But what if that seesaw (or perhaps a trampoline with paper currency contestants trying to out jump each other) is tightly tied to a 5,000 pound anchor that has just been tossed out of an airplane Do these up and down movements of paper notes relative to each other actually have significant meaning relative to the downward plunge both are experiencing The answer to this question, of course, depends on one's time horizon and goals.

This seesaw/trampoline analogy is not a minor matter of importance to me. For this is our current international monetary system and this system is hurtling towards disaster at a somewhat frightening pace. Whether the U.S. Dollar Index rises a few more percent before dropping again or not is not as important as realizing that the fundamental underpinnings of the U.S Dollar are being destroyed by the federal government and its non-federal, for profit, central bank corporation known as the federal reserve. Piling unpayable debt on top of unpayable debt just because one can is quintessential depravity. The consequences will not be minor. The maddening thing is that nearly every other major nation in the world is happy to follow suit and some are in an even worse financial position than the United States. How can this end well

I started my economic educational journey with eyes wide shut and now find them open, aware and already jaundiced. From inflation to deflation to hyperinflation and back again, I now find these terms only vaguely helpful to describe what we have been and are going to continue to go through. No period in history is identical to its predecessor, despite the rhymes that make market and economic history relevant.

Some things history and my education to date have taught me:

　　

　　*No currency system has survived intact for more than 40-50 years or so, whether Gold-backed or not. If Gold backed, the Gold backing will be revoked or watered down at the first sign of trouble. If not Gold backed, the currency will be debased into oblivion by those addicted to the magical printing/debt press. When currency "events" occur, Gold is a reliable way to protect your savings and come out ahead on the other side.

*A heavily over-indebted nation with no savings is not going to see its currency rise to astronomical new heights in some Prechterite deflationary miracle. The U.S. is a heavy debtor nation, not a creditor nation like it was in the 1930s and not a nation with savings like Japan in the 1990s. A brief short squeeze in the Dollar can occur, just like in 2008, but a sustained bull market in a severely damaged paper debt instrument that no longer holds the world's confidence (like, ummmm, the U.S. Dollar) is unlikely. In fact, I would wager that such a scenario is about as likely right now as a sustained new secular bull market in subprime mortgage debt, which now [not] coincidentally backs the U.S. Dollar thanks to the policies of the private federal reserve corporation.

*Gold is a great hedge against government insanity and instability and we are in a secular cycle of government insanity and instability right now. Gold is not a simple asset class (as the ignorant commentators shouting "barbarous relic" would have you believe), it is not a consistent inflation or deflation hedge, and it is not just an anti-Dollar play.

*Every asset class has its day in the sun. It is Gold's turn in the sun and Gold's secular bull market is not close to being over. Sometimes bull markets go up just because they've been going up and the momentum and capital concentration begin to take over in a display of primal herding behavior that can persist for much longer than seems rational. We first need to see a visible public Gold rush/mania to match the preceding paper mania in internet stocks and real estate before this Gold bull is over.

　　

　　This means your paperbug, CNBC-watching neighbors, co-workers and/or friends with any money left to invest are comparing notes on where to buy physical Gold coins and bars (that's buying Gold, not selling Gold jewelry to pay the rent) and how to participate in junior Gold mining stock IPOs. I vividly remember a day in 1999, not long after I first started "investing," when a janitor where I used to work started talking to me about internet stocks after he noticed I was checking stock quotes online. We barely knew each other, but I sure felt envious of his stock picking prowess and he of mine by the time our ten minute conversation ended. I hope he made out better than I did once the internet bubble burst a few months later. Does anyone without an axe to grind against Gold really think we're at this type of mania stage right now When a reality show called "Flip that Krugerrand" hits my local cable network, then I'll start getting worried.

*Gold brings out some very strange emotions in people - the extremes are represented by paperbugs and goldbugs. Emotions often get people (including me) into trouble when investing. Paperbugs will miss out on the Gold bull market until the very end stages as they bash Gold and try top calling on Gold unsuccessfully the whole way up. Goldbugs will lose much of their hard-earned profits by failing to realize that Gold will not be the "go to" asset class forever (I'm assuming the goal here is to make money rather than a political statement). If one doesn't sell high, then one may well take the round trip back to low again if history is a decent guide. At some point in the next decade, Gold will become expensive and stocks and real estate will become cheap (we're not likely to be close to this point until the Dow to Gold ratio hits 2).

*Gold mining is a hard, capital intensive business. Gold miners provide leverage to the price of Gold, but that leverage is not guaranteed, not consistent and it comes with added risk (i.e. leverage cuts both ways).

　　

　　
Those calling for the collapse of Gold here are the same ones who yelled from the rooftops last fall that Gold was no safe haven and the fall 2008 crash proved it because Gold sank in the chaos. Of course, no thoughtful comments were made by these same folks when Gold was back at $1000/oz in February of 2009 while the stock market slithered to even lower and essentially unthinkable depths. These folks also said Gold was only making new highs in U.S. Dollar terms early this fall when Gold began its breakout, ignoring the new highs in many major currencies for Gold in early 2009 and again a few weeks ago.

You can listen to these folks if you want, but I think we are at a strong buying point for Gold and most Gold mining stocks. I think Gold and major Gold stock indices are going to make new highs soon (likely before January is over, though I don't know exactly when). I am not focused on the paper debt notes moving up and down on their seesaws or trampolines, I am focused on the anchor pulling all these notes rapidly down towards the earth due to shattered confidence and irrational fiscal and monetary policies around the globe that even a 3rd grader knows are harmful. The decline in value of all paper debt instruments (i.e. all current national currencies and their derivatives) will cause a continued rise in Gold, as people will seek out the currency and wealth protector of last resort.

　　

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