美国股市黑色星期一再次降临?
美东时间10月26日凌晨5:12将有重大事件发生
tigergoo
评论:美国东部时间10月26日凌晨5:12(北京时间周一17:12)将有全球性重大事件发生,误差在6个小时以内。美国股市黑色星期一再次降临?
难道是:1.奥巴马已经宣布的全国紧急状态导致?
2.以色列核突袭伊朗?
3.美国突然宣布美元对黄金贬值10倍,推出北美元并与黄金形成固定汇率?
4.加州宣布破产导致美国国债被急剧抛售,美元崩溃?
5.美国宣布国家进入破产重组?
原文链接:
Dead Banks Walking, Redux
Since I don't normally write a Saturday column - having promised myself more 'down time' but, like swearing off eating red meat, a promise more easily made than kept, I found myself tossing and turning most of the night after one of the late night radio newscasts announced seven more banks had been closed by the FDIC. Whether they've found a rich uncle to fund their refi's of banks isn't the issue (you're the rich 'uncle' - as in Sam - by the way) is not the point so much as the sheer number of branches that have been reorganized and absorbed since last July's IndyMac debacle. This weeks listing:
First DuPage BankRiverview Community BankBank of ElmwoodFlagship National BankHillcrest Bank FloridaAmerican United BankPartners BankThere are all kinds of numbers that can be used here: The number of banks reorg'ed since January 1 this year is 106, the number in the last calendar year is 116, the number from (including) IndyMac is 128. The number of branches impacted is 3,752. A mere 21-branches were impacted this week.
Fear Monday
As we've been writing about for what 6-9 months now The linguistics turn that has been tracking for October 25/26 is nearly in vie as processing continues.
Just so you understand how this stuff works in a very general sense the October 'turn' was spotted in the last several data runs and may be as much as 85% economic in nature. But now that we're getting close, Cliff and Igor have been watching the data coming back from the forum scouring spiders which are sending in snips of interest to the servers, where in turn they are distilled and analyzed.
So, the latest from Cliff is:
"latest immediacy data shows it as occurring at
5:12 am 10-26-2009 (time zones are a bitch so let us just say east coast time) and will likely be wrong by about 6 hours as it may actually be 'effective' on the paris meridian (the old rose line).
a small visibility spike occurs at 7:02 am on the 26th
so damn early Monday morning...."
I plan to get up a little earlier than usual Monday to see how it looks 'going by'. It's always of interest not only to watch something in the 'rickety time machine' pop into reality, but more interesting to is do some propagation mapping.
What's that Oh, you know: You can get a sense of who is playing 'follow the leader" and who the real leaders are when the Monday story hits (if/when it does at all - since we could be wrong).
Seeing as it arises out of 'globalpop', I am not really expecting it to be a USA-centered event. Maybe something in Asia (huge mega quake or financial lockup - something like that - or heaven forbid Israel takes out the Bushir reactor complex.)
Not only will Cliff & Igor get to see the change of language wash through the internet, but I will be able to see how the story pops and see how it goes from usually only one or two 'first hand' media to the rest of the MSM and then into the blogosphere. I figure if the timing's right, it ought to be on the tongues of about half the world's population by say Tuesday noon US time if we've got the timing clues right.
延伸阅读:
奥巴马宣布美国进入甲型流感全国紧急状态年10月25日01:39新华网
新华网华盛顿10月24日电 (记者杨晴川)美国白宫24日发表声明说,美国总统奥巴马于前一天晚上签署公告,宣布美国进入甲型H1N1流感全国紧急状态,以简化有关行政手续,为医疗部门应对甲型H1N1流感的迅速蔓延提供便利。
声明说,这份公告将允许医疗照顾、医疗救助和其它联邦医疗保险计划在甲型H1N1流感病例激增的特殊情况下放宽规定,简化手续,及时为患者提供治疗。
声明援引奥巴马的话说,此举的目的是确保美国的医疗保健设施能够迅速实施甲型H1N1流感应急计划。声明还说,美国应对甲型H1N1流感的基本国策是在个人、企业和政府等各个层面做好充分准备,增强整体应对能力。
美国疾病控制和预防中心23日说,甲型H1N1感流在美国迅速蔓延,自今年4月份以来,已造成1000多名美国人死亡,2万多人住院,预计感染人数超过数百万人。甲型H1N1感流已蔓延到美全国50个州中的46个,达到普通流感高峰期水平,但比普通流感高峰期来得更早。美国年轻人和儿童最易受甲型H1N1流感病毒感染,预计目前美国五分之一的儿童出现了不同程度的甲型H1N1感流症状。
与此同时,甲型H1N1感流疫苗的生产晚于预期。截至10月21日,美国已生产出1610万剂甲型H1N1感流疫苗,但可能无法实现年内生产出1.95亿剂疫苗的预定目标。而美国卫生部门称,有信心最终生产出足够的疫苗。
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